At 12:27 PM, I noticed that the cumulus were building a bit more aggressively than I thought this morning. Checking satellite image loops, I can see patterns of patchy clouds to our southwest from Asheville down into Georgia and southeastern Tennessee, also south of us around Charlotte. Dew points (an indicator of humidity) are in the low 60s here which would support a few isolated thunderstorms later today, but mid to upper 60s are reported over the Charlotte area and the SC Upstate. Also, surface-based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability needed for thunderstorm development) is increasing and right now ranges between 1500 and 2000 across the counties, moderate to high values for this time of year. Based on what Im seeing, Im going to bump up the chances for thunderstorms later this afternoon. I think we are likely to see scattered thunderstorms throughout with the heaviest storms in the mountains and also over eastern Burke, southeastern Caldwell and Catawba Counties. With a bit more widespread storm coverage, the chances for a severe thunderstorm or two goes up also, main threats being damaging winds and possibly some quarter size hail. Not everyone will see a storm but if you do, it could pack a punch with frequent lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds.--Steve.
Posted on: Mon, 12 May 2014 16:36:38 +0000
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