Beat the Bookie Weekend Wrap Up Monday 26th August 2013 A weird weekend that provided plenty of excellent winners but couldn’t get the Top 5 into serious profit. The inability of the Titans to get over the top of the Warriors was our downfall, but half decent D would have meant they were defending a lead and not chasing a win. Their season is over with that loss. The Top 5 returned 6.3 units from 6 invested for a 5% net profit. Friday started well as Wellington easily beat the point start v Taranaki. But, just as we were expecting two from two there was a huge upset, Otago taking out the Ranfurly Shield challenge. They probably deserved the win but an incompetent TMO call was the defining event of the game. Upon scoring just before halftime, to get themselves back into the game, the Mooloo men attacked quickly after the restart and tore through the Otago defensive line. A fantastic run by Tokula was capped off by a brilliant pass. Drawing the last defender he basketballed a pass over the fullback to the support player who scored adjacent to the posts. The pass was flat at worst, and seen only from a bad angle, but impossible to call as a forward pass with any confidence. In fact, any impartial viewer wouldn’t have given it a second look as a possible forward pass, especially considering the number of passes clearly 2 and 3 metres forward for tries that have been allowed to stand in the early rounds of the comp. However, this TMO idiot decided to make his mark and the 7 legitimate points that were taken from Waikato were the difference in the final result. Congrats to Otago for withstanding the final onslaught to hold out Waikato, and it’s great for ‘the Shield’, but Otago need to buy that man a gift. Things picked up immediately as one of our Dylans scored the first try for the Bunnies over the Doggies. In fact the Dylans scored the first two tries, with Walker scoring shortly after Farrell. Unfortunately for us the Doggies gave up two points from a penalty before scoring late in the first half. The 8 point halftime margin tantalisingly close to our 1-6 margin selection. However, those two points proved to be important for the Top 5 as the Bunnies couldn’t score a late try to get over the 7+ margin. Electing to take the two points from a late penalty was enough though, the 8 point margin getting a 1.5 unit play home. At the same time the Panthers dispatched the Broncos but our man David Simmonds was unselfish in his play and couldn’t get himself on the score sheet. Saturday afternoon was a good one for Late Mail as Ryan Crotty got on the score sheet for Canterbury. An early try for the Titans later in the evening got us two from two. The inability of Hawke’s Bay to fall over the line in the final seconds of ‘the battle of the bays’ prevented a clean sweep for the weekend, as Will Chambers scored for the Storm Sunday evening. Who didn’t! We had Chambers and Blair for the first try but they could only come up with the last and second last try and, for once we didn’t have our selection for last try. Late Mail returned 4.15 units from 3 invested, for a 38% net profit. A late try to the red and blacks meant they just went over our 12 & under margin as well, which looked good throughout. Saturday evening the All Blacks outplayed the Wallabies once again and got a good value selection home on the 11-20 margin. Rugby returned 5.12 units from 4.5 invested, for a 14% net profit. At the same time the Titans were playing themselves out of the Top 8 with a woeful defensive display v the Warriors. The late withdrawals of Zillman and Bird were probably the difference in this one. If those two had played the Titans would have won. But they didn’t and the Top 5 needed two more wins for profit. NRL had a tough weekend, as the hapless Dragons were smashed by the woeful Tigers Saturday evening, killing off that selection. NRL returned 2.55 units from 5.5 invested. But the first try winner certainly eased any pain. Things looked balanced on a knife edge as we entered the final quarter in our AFL selection but an onslaught in the final term ensured Adelaide easily beat the point start and got AFL off the mark. Overnight a win for Hertha Berlin meant the Top 5 had profit in consecutive weeks. Now we need good profit next week. Football went 2 from 2 as our goals over selection went easily over in the Leicester v Birmingham game. Football returned 3.83 units from 2 invested, for a 91% net profit. AFL went from strength to strength over the weekend and is slowly inching back to profitability for the season. Both Fremantle and Richmond smashed their opponents, going over their respective point starts by huge margins. AFL returned 5.61 units from 3 invested, for a 87% net profit. With kick off an hour away we expect a cracker in tonight’s NRL heavyweight clash, the Sharks hosting the Roosters. We expect the Roosters to win this one in a tight game but it’s a toss up for who scores the first try. We will be on Tupou ($9) and late call up Langi ($12), to score the first try for the Roosters. But to cover, we are selecting two big men to score the first try for the Sharks, at serious outsider odds. We will have a sneaky few dollars on Fifita ($20) and Gallen ($25) to score the first try for the Sharks. Should make for a fun opening stanza! Have a good week. Conor © Copyright Beat the Bookie 2013
Posted on: Mon, 26 Aug 2013 08:05:26 +0000
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