*COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM WEDNESDAY* * FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NEW JERSEY* Good morning! Rain over the next few days will be capable of producing flooding of some streets, highways and in areas of poor drainage... There may even be some river and stream flooding... The heaviest rain should occur later on Wednesday night when there can also be a gusty thunderstorm... total rainfall likely 2-4 with locally higher amounts... A glance at this morning’s weather map reveals a strong area of low pressure located over Iowa with a long warm front extending from the Ohio Valley, into the Appalachians, and into Virginia to its east. A cold front trails from Iowa southward into Texas on the back side of the system. This large weather system that was responsible for numerous tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds across the central and southern states over the past several days. Ultimately, it will lead to an unsettled end of the month of April for millions up and down the eastern seaboard as the risk for heavy rain, flooding, and gusty thunderstorms pushes eastward in the coming days… Tuesday will turn out quite cool — some 10 to in some cases near 20 degrees below average — as a brisk easterly wind at 15-25 mph transports the still chilly marine air inland. There will be *some* rain in the area today, however it is unlikely that it amounts to all that much. The European Model gives just 0.01 inches while the GFS gives a little more at 0.10. Those north and east of the City may see no rain at all as it battles a very dry air mass at the surface. Nevertheless, it is going to be a dreary and unpleasant late-April day. Conditions will turn wetter Tuesday night, especially during the second half of the night and toward daybreak Wednesday, as a moisture-rich plume of air streams up from the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall between .25-.50 inches of rain appears likely. The models are in good agreement that Wednesday and Wednesday night will be the wettest periods with a solid 1-3 additional inches of rain (locally higher amounts likely). Flooding is a legitimate concern, especially for those near creeks, streams or in low-lying and poor drainage areas. One product used to determine which spots are most to prone to flooding is the National Weather Service Flash Flood Guidance page. Current indications are that it will take 1.4-1.8 inches to achieve flooding in northeast NJ and closer to 2 inches across New York City, the Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut in a 12 hour period. Additionally, we are dealing with a relatively dry ground region wide…which will only be able to hold so much new rain water and a fair deal may just run off. When you combine this two ideas, it appears that some flooding is likely to occur with this event and that the most likely time is Wednesday night. The warm front will slowly move north Wednesday night and a night of rising temperatures and dew points appears likely at this time as the wind turns to the south and a triple point tracks west of the City. This would be the most likely time for a thunderstorm, perhaps a strong one, to occur. The front will push offshore early Thursday morning, along with the rain (holding on awhile longer on Long Island), and clouds will break for some sunshine. A warmer and more humid afternoon is expected with southwesterly flow. We can’t guarantee a dry afternoon on Thursday as remnant upper-atmospheric energy continues to rotate overhead — in fact, I wouldn’t entirely rule out a gustier shower or thunderstorm especially if there is good heating and sunshine. A drier west-southwesterly flow will occur Friday (we removed precipitation for this day) with seasonably warm temperatures — currently looks like a decent end to the week. A series of troughs will swing through next weekend, spreading some additional showers and clouds. It does not look like a washout by any means — seasonable temperatures. A quicker, more zonal atmospheric flow will resume early next week with near-normal or slightly below temperatures likely and near-average precipitation. Long range European ensemble products show a ridge building across the Southeast toward the 8th or 9th…and some above-average warmth from the central states expanding into the Mid- Atlantic around or just after the 10th… Have a great day!
Posted on: Tue, 29 Apr 2014 08:48:40 +0000
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