CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS As of 7:00 pm today, the center of TS Haiyan was located over the central part of the Caroline Islands, just west of Chuuk State...about 865 km south-southeast of Hagatna, Guam or 2,645 km east-southeast of Samar, Philippines...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 28 km/hr towards Yap State in Western Micronesia. Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center. TS Haiyan is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* TS Haiyan is expected to continue moving slightly westerly during the the next 24 hours...with a west-northwest turn through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TS Haiyan will passing just to the south of Yap State on Wednesday evening. TS Haiyan will gradually intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours as the system moves over the warm open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean...and could become a well-developed Typhoon on Tuesday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to almost 200 km/hr on Wednesday afternoon. The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system: TUESDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Typhoon (Category 1) as it heads for Yap State...about 665 km east-southeast of Colonia, Yap [8PM NOV 05: 7.2N 143.7E @ 130kph]. WEDNESDAY EVENING: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it passes to the south of Yap State...about 105 km south-southwest of Colonia, Yap [2PM NOV 06: 8.6N 137.8E @ 195kph]. THURSDAY EVENING: Moving across the Philippine Sea as a Category 4 Typhoon as it dangerously approaches Eastern Visayas...about 670 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar, PH [8PM NOV 07: 10.3N 131.4E @ 215kph].
Posted on: Tue, 05 Nov 2013 05:59:40 +0000
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