Coffee Break Rumination: So a friend recently shared a thought with me: The only way the biosphere can be saved is if human civilization collapses! This is a common sentiment in environmental and animal rights circles, and I understand the sentiment and feeling about it. The problem is, it wont go down that way. The actual collapse of a high energy, world spanning civilization is going to be messy ... very messy ... and would precipitate an ecological disaster that makes 200 years of industrialization and over fishing look like a birthday party. There are currently 435 nuclear power plants in operation. The shutdown of a nuclear reactor, de-fueling, and proper disposal of fuel elements, etc. is a complex activity unlikely to occur in the midst of a collapse. So add 435 Fukushimas to the world. A collapse would be a long drawn out process ... and it would feature military conflict and civil unrest on an unprecedented scale. Modern warfare is ecological calamity in a bottle. Depleted uranium rounds, various toxins too numerous to mention, massive releases of carbon from a thousand different sources, etc. all on a scale never witnessed before. And that isnt even counting the likelihood of tactical nuclear exchanges, or worse yet, a strategic engagement. I could go on, and on, and on, about the wreckage to the environment inflicted by our civilization during collapse, and on into the aftermath of collapse for thousands of years. But I think the point is well established by the considerations already given. We can expect a thriving biosphere to be re-established in 500,000 years or so (yay!) but like most members of the animal kingdom that would bring the human species little comfort. Even if you are of the sort that loves animals and hate humans, logic informs you that the animal lives you advocate will not be spared the brunt of blow. Like it or not, we have already entered a period of history in which the biosphere as we know it cannot endure without massive and well engineered human intervention. We have to transform ourselves from planetary exploiters to planetary gardeners. This transformation will demand technologies we have barely conceived, or have left as yet unimagined. It will also demand a complete transformation of economic and political systems. And we are running out of time to accomplish these deeds. Oceanographers project that by 2048, the seas will be devoid of fish. At that point, it is difficult to imagine anything other than a collapse of the biosphere as we know it. There are of course many other identified pathways to the aforementioned biosphere collapse. As a species, we are in big trouble. Its 11:59, and the only question remaining is if you are going to sit back and watch it all unfold, or if you are going to get on the ready line.
Posted on: Mon, 27 Oct 2014 22:27:06 +0000
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