DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 AM CDT MON SEP 02 2013 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TEXT ERROR IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ...UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIANS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE EWD INTO WRN NY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NW PA INTO CNTRL OH BY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/TUE FROM SYRACUSE NY SWWD TO COLUMBUS OH SHOW SBCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ...ARKLATEX/TN VALLEY... A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SHOULD YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM NE TX NEWD ACROSS SRN AR INTO NRN MS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS SPREADING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...21Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LONGVIEW TX AND LITTLE ROCK AR SHOW LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS.
Posted on: Mon, 02 Sep 2013 11:34:34 +0000
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