DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VLY... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH LATER TODAY. MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER TIDEWATER VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ...SYNOPTIC SETUP... DEEP MS VLY TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ENE TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THU AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE GRT BASIN. DEEP...SSWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF MS VLY TROUGH WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS JET STREAK NOW OVER MS/WRN TN SWEEPS RAPIDLY NEWD...REACHING WRN OH THIS EVE...AND WRN QUE EARLY THU. AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL KY SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE TO WRN OH THIS EVE BEFORE UNDERGOING MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING AS IT CONTINUES NNE INTO ERN ONT LATE TNGT/EARLY THU. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM THE LOW TO INTENSIFY AND ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE UPR OH VLY EARLY TNGT. THE FRONT LIKELY WILL HAVE CLEARED THE MID AND S ATLANTIC CST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN FL/SE GA/ERN CAROLINAS TO DELMARVA TODAY/TNGT... PRE-FRONTAL SQLN NOW EXTENDING FROM PIEDMONT SC SSW TO THE FL CSTL BEND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH EARLY TNGT. THE LINE HAS BECOME ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP SSWLY FLOW...AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER COMPARED TO ANALOGOUS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT YESTERDAY OVER LA-MA-AL. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF RICH MOISTURE AND MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO OR TWO FROM ANY LONGER-LIVED EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS OVER NRN FL..SE GA AND ERN SC. FARTHER NE...SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY PERSIST/DEVELOP ALONG THE NC CSTL PLN NNE TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION...WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGLY LINEAR FORCING. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID-LVL SHEAR /WITH 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS/...SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS OR A COUPLE TORNADOES. ...UPR OH VLY THIS AFTN INTO TNGT... STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MS/TN JET STREAK...AND APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN OH AND OH LATER TODAY. WHILE MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH...EXPECTED DYNAMIC FORCING COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX VERY STRONG LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO THE SFC. THE CONVECTIVE BAND COULD MOVE AS FAR ENE AS WRN PA AND POSSIBLY SW NY LATE TNGT.
Posted on: Wed, 24 Dec 2014 18:20:16 +0000
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