DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SAT JUN 08 2013 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLNS THIS EVE AND INTO THE LWR MO VLY TNGT/EARLY SUN AS A FLAT RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WRN GRT BASIN/PACIFIC NW. FARTHER E...MODERATE SW TO WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CNTRL AND ERN U.S...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER VA/NC. THE WY TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER NEB TODAY...WITH THE LOW REACHING WRN IA EARLY SUN. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE SSE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS TODAY...AND MORE SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS/MID-MO VLY BY THROUGH TNGT. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD MIX E INTO SW KS...THE OK-TX PANHANDLES...AND SW TX BY LATE AFTN. THE PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL ALSO WILL ACCOMPANY VA/NC IMPULSE. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE... AMPLIFYING UPR SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE WIND FIELD AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND NWRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD...BUT EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF ASSOCIATED THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. SCTD...MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP E ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB TODAY...IN ZONE OF DCVA/WAA AHEAD OF MAIN UPR VORT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A BAND OR TWO OF SUSTAINED STORMS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR SVR WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN CNTRL NEB WHERE THE GREATEST BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST. A SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT FARTHER SW ACROSS A LARGE PART OF KS INTO THE OK-TX PANHANDLES...WRN OK AND W TX. SFC HEATING ALONG KS COLD FRONT...AND ALONG DRY LINE FARTHER S...SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE AOA 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 F. WHILE THE STRONGEST MID/UPR-LVL WINDS WITH THE UPR TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL W AND N OF WARM SECTOR...AMPLE DEEP SHEAR /WITH CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL VEERING/...WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR 30-40 KT SLY LLJ OVER CNTRL/NE KS...BUT MID/UPR-LVL FLOW OVER THAT REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. IN CONTRAST...ALONG THE DRY LINE...LOW-LVL TURNING WILL REMAIN MINIMAL UNTIL THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TNGT...ALTHOUGH COMPARATIVELY STRONGER MID/UPR FLOW WILL EXIST FOR MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. IN ANY CASE...SIZABLE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUBSTANTIAL STORM OUTFLOW AND EVOLUTION INTO LINES THAT POSE MAINLY A WIND/HAIL THREAT.
Posted on: Sat, 08 Jun 2013 16:53:39 +0000
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