DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NRN US WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD AS BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND MT ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL NEB AND NRN CO. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN MN... A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL ELY WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE FRONT AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING RESULTS IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J PER KG/ WHILE CONTRIBUTING TO A DECREASE IN CIN. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY DEVELOP...WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING AND LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR APPEAR MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG MULTICELL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THIS REGION. ...SRN PLAINS... COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW /500 MB TEMPERATURE OF -12C/ MOVING WWD ACROSS OK/NRN TX IS FORECAST CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUBSTANTIAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WITH RESULTANT FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING CONVECTIVE STORM MODIFICATION SIGNATURES /SATURATED MID LEVELS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES/ AND LIMITED OVERALL INSTABILITY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL AREAS TO UNDERGO STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS DEVELOP...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS MAY FORM IN THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...TN VALLEY... MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGER DEEP LAYER SELY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN A MINIMALLY CAPPED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY. WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS /PW OF 1.75-2.O IN/ ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-30 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL PROMOTE A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS THAT WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE NW. PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS MAY YIELD A FEW WET MICROBURSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..WEISS.. 07/13/2013
Posted on: Sat, 13 Jul 2013 12:06:09 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015