Dangerous week ahead This is a long post with comments from Eastwest Skytalets and Tim Ash of Standard Bank, news post from Bloomberg, and a video. From Eastwest Skytalets 10:14 PM June 20 The situation in Ukraine today has now become manifestly surreal. Dangerously surreal! The Ukrainian population is now hopelessly confused from the seemingly irreconcilable information released over the last two days. Regrettably the Ukrainian Government has failed to provide any context to this information and the population is totally on its own. The highlights: 1) The video link at the end of this article, supported by hundreds of eyewitness reports, shows that the flow of Russian arms and tanks across Ukraines eastern border has escalated dramatically in the last 24 hours; 2) Clashes yesterday near Slovyansk in the Donetsk region left 13 Ukrainian servicemen dead and 30 wounded, with almost 300 militants/separatists/terrorists killed in a firefight, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry; 2) The Americans announced sanctions against seven separatist leaders!?!? - instead of anticipated sector sanctions against Russias banking and/or energy sectors; 3) President Poroshenko came out on national TV today and announced a unilateral ceasefire till June 27 when Ukraine is scheduled to sign the EU Association Agreement; I cant imagine any sane betting service taking a bet on how the situation will play out in Ukraine in the next week. From: Timothy Ash (STANDARD BANK PLC) Date: Fri, Jun 20, 2014 at 7:58 PM Subject: (BN) Ukraine Declares Cease-Fire in East After U.S. Expands These things all seem linked. The US imposes sanctions on 7 of the seperatist leaders, just as this 7 day ceasefire is announced, and the ceasefire so happens to end on June 27, the date that Ukraine is due now to sign the AA/DCFTA with the EU. EU leaders are meeting the day before then to figure out if further steps are needed with respect to Ukraine, and talk of further sanctions is being banded about. The big question remains as to how Russia is going to respond to all this, and really work to encourage the seperatists to lay down their arms. The messages on the ground are not particularly encouraging with fighting continuing, and seperatist leaders saying they will fight on, while somewhat suspicious troop and arms movements continue across the border in Russia. This is all a key test for Poroshenko, Putin and Western resolve to work together to try and bring a meaningful conclusion to all this - or at least something which is workable, and gives the Poroshenko administration in Kyiv a chance of success. I guess a concern would be if the ceasefire is broken, and we see a significant upsurge in violence, whether the EU then bottles it with respect to signing the AA/DCFTA - surely they cannot go back on this commitment now. Ukraine Declares Cease-Fire in East After U.S. Expands Sanctions 2014-06-20 16:46:44.723 GMT By Terry Atlas, Brian Parkin and Daryna Krasnolutska June 20 (Bloomberg) -- Ukraine announced a week-long unilateral cease-fire in its easternmost regions after the U.S. imposed sanctions on people linked to the insurgency and accused Russia of providing new military aid to separatists. Ukraine called on all fighters to lay down arms, halting the government offensive against rebels until June 27, the Interior Ministry in Kiev said in a website statement, citing President Petro Poroshenko. The Treasury Department sanctioned seven individuals, including the acting governor of Sevastopol in Crimea and separatist leaders in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, according to a statement issued today in Washington. Further industrywide measures are being readied against companies in finance, defense and technology, a U.S. official said. “The United States will continue to take action to hold accountable those persons engaged in efforts to destabilize Crimea and eastern Ukraine,” Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David Cohen said in the statement. “These individuals have all contributed to attempts to illegally undermine the legitimate government.” The U.S. is levying penalties for the first time since April 28, when it sanctioned people and companies linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. Russia risks further measures when European Union leaders meet next week unless it helps end the unrest to support an emerging peace plan, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today. ‘Days Ahead’ “The days ahead will be very decisive for what we can decide” at the summit on June 26-27, Merkel told reporters in Berlin. “We expect Russia to respond in a positive and constructive way.” While Germany wants to see a cease-fire, “there is planning” for other outcomes as well, she said. Merkel’s comments reflect an effort by EU powers to gain leverage over Putin by using Poroshenko’s cease-fire as a trigger for expanded sanctions if Putin doesn’t cooperate. The U.S. and the EU have imposed sanctions on people and companies close to Putin, while threatening the government in Moscow with unspecified economic sanctions as pro-Russian separatists clash with Ukrainian forces. EU leaders “will review where we stand” at the talks in Brussels, Merkel said. U.S. companies are prohibited from doing business with individuals and entities on the sanctions list, and all assets of those designated that are within U.S. jurisdiction must be frozen, according to the Treasury. New Buildup Russia has redeployed troops close to the Ukrainian border and sent tanks and other equipment to separatists in recent days, the American official said today in Washington. Russian special forces are maintaining positions at border sites to support Ukrainian separatists and more troops are headed to the region, the official said. As a result, the U.S. and the EU are intensifying discussions about imposing sanctions on Russia’s finance, defense and high-tech industries, said the official, who spoke with reporters on condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic matters. Group of Seven leaders refrained on June 4 from imposing additional sanctions on Russia, instead pushing for diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis. Leaders including Merkel, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron and President Barack Obama warned then that “we stand ready to intensify targeted sanctions and to implement significant additional restrictive measures” in the absence of a peaceful settlement. Clashes Erupt Fighting continued to flare this week between Ukrainian troops and insurgents, casting a pall over government efforts to declare a cease-fire. Separatists with armored vehicles attacked a tank base in the Donetsk region city of Artemivsk overnight, with explosions heard and one soldier wounded. Clashes yesterday left seven servicemen dead and 30 wounded, with almost 300 militants killed in a firefight near Slovyansk in the Donetsk region, according to the Defense Ministry. Clashes erupted yesterday near the villages of Yampil and Zakotne close to Slovyansk, according to the Defense Ministry. Government forces backed by planes eliminated checkpoints set up by insurgents. In Kramatorsk, rebels attacked Ukrainian forces, Seleznyov said. Poroshenko’s Talks Poroshenko yesterday met political and business leaders from conflict-wracked regions to muster support for his peace efforts. He presented his 14-point peace plan during closed-door meetings. He also discussed it last night by phone with Putin. A key part of the plan is the cease-fire offer during which insurgents will be given a limited window to lay down their arms and those who haven’t committed any serious crimes will be offered amnesty and safe passage out of the country. Pro-Russian separatists have indicated they’d reject a cease-fire. Before the cease-fire can be implemented, Ukraine must reassert control over its border with Russia, across which fighters have crossed, according to Poroshenko. Defense Minister Mykhaylo Koval told lawmakers today that the border is secured. Russia is increasing security because it’s concerned about the situation on the border, though it’s not building up troop levels, Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign-policy aide, said today. Poroshenko’s peace plan also includes decentralization of power through constitutional amendments, regional elections and leaving 25 percent of collected income tax at the local level. From: Timothy Ash (STANDARD BANK PLC) Date: Fri, Jun 20, 2014 at 20:26 Subject: Ukraine - troop movements? Pretty amazing coverage. This is from Ukrainska Pravda earlier today. The second video shows purportedly scenes from Luhansk earlier this morning and a very large convoy of army trucks, APCs and tanks - which the report says are coming over the border from Russia. You can see part the way thru the emblem of St George, what has been taken now as the emblem of the seperatists. pravda.ua/news/2014/06/20/7029642/ Hard to verify all this stuff, but the US and NATO has been talking about cross border movements. Both sides are playing out an info war. But this is some serious kit being moved somewhere.
Posted on: Fri, 20 Jun 2014 22:16:13 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015