Dear MDC SPOKESPERSON 11.03.2013 The OdingaThe OdingaThe OdingaThe OdingaThe OdingaThe OdingaThe OdingaThe OdingaThe Odinga -Uhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru EffectUhuru Effect on thethethe MDCMDCMDC Introduction Through alliance politics, Raila Odinga has failed to outrightly win elections in Kenya, despite being the most publicized democratic leader, just like the MDC’s leader Dr. R. Morgan Tsvangirai. So, what does this mean to the MDC? Like in Ghana’s 2012 disputed elections, the international community, diplomats and observers have again given vote tallying a clean report. NPP of Nana Akufo-Addo in Ghana and Odinga’s CORD in Kenya are both opposition parties that lost elections, claimed vote rigging, challenged elections in the court and no recourse materialised1. Worse still, both parties could not gain international community support in their claims2 as they previously did. The MDC may as well be in the same gravy train, if a decisive option to win elections with a great margin is not explored. Reality vs. Opinion Poll Kenyatta won with 50.07% against Odinga with 43%, about 8,400 of the 12.3 million votes edged Mr. Kenyatta across the 50 per cent victory.3 Opinion polls had predicted close results previously, “CORD’s candidate Raila Odinga would get 44%, Jubilee’s Uhuru Kenyatta 43%, Musalia Mudavadi 6% while Peter Kenneth 3%” while presidential candidate popularity, Raila Odinga would garner 46%, Uhuru Kenyatta 44%, Musalia Mudavadi 6% and Peter Kenneth 2%.”4 The polls seemed nearly correct on both accounts. In Ghana, 6 months before elections, DaMina, a US based research group said “the NPP would win 52 to 53 per cent of the popular vote.5 Three months before elections, Republic Newspaper and UK Group Policy & Strategy Associates, predicted 52% backing of NDC John Mahama against opposition NPP candidate.6 Finally, NDC won with 50.70% while NPP won with 47.7%,7 which means the polls were nearly correct again. These results, compared to reality, means opinion polls are vital to consider. The MDC has always glorified opinion polls favouring them and disregarded results against them. In May 2009, 57% stated an intention to vote for MDC-T, falling to 55% in September 2009 and 36% in October 2010. The parallel tallies for ZANU-PF were 10% in May 2009, 11% in September 2009 and 18%in October 2010.8 In 2010, the MDC described opinion results as “explicit and reflective of the people’s will,” but in August 2012 and 2013 opinion polls by Freedom House and MPOI were ignored9 because they are negative to the party’s wishes10. Recent results reflect the Churches as an old, but emerging factor11. These results 1 NPP Did Not Lose Election 2012, Stupid! ghanaweb/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.php?ID=266091 2NDC-NPP Case: Mahama Requests Further Particulars On 4,709 Polling Stations exposeghana/ndc-npp-case-mahama-requests-further-particulars-on-4709-polling-stations/ 3Uhuru Kenyatta Declared President-Elect - kenyanelections2013.org/?tag=raila-odinga 4Tight Race Between Odinga, Kenyatta, Pollsters Say -citizennews.co.ke/elections/index.php/elections-news/item/2084- 5Ghana heads to decisive presidential elections : aljazeera/indepth/opinion/2012/10/2012101511218436660.html 6Mahama Leads Akufo-Addo In 7 Of 10 Regions - ghanaweb/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.php?ID=249741 7 Ghana Votes - ghanaelections.peacefmonline/ 8Zimbabwe: The Evolving Public Mood Afrobarometer Briefing Paper No. 97 December 2010afrobarometer.org 9MDC-T trashes poll survey -theindependent.co.zw/2012/08/24/mdc-t-trashes-poll-survey/ 10Zimbabwe Opinion Survey Reveals Hope for Elections, but Cynicism About Political Leaders -freedomhouse.org/article/zimbabwe-opinion-survey-reveals-hope-elections-cynicism-about-political-leaders 11.03.2013 are a reflection of the MDC’s denial of political crescendos, dynamics and perpetual refusal to put necessary (radical) safeguards for electoral victory. Instead, there is need for proper diagnosis of the party’s state of popularity and being politically realistic before it is too late. Violence and other environmental factors may soon not be a defensive weapon, especially if new forces emerge. Could the politics of alliance be an answer?12 It is obvious that no election will ever take place without minimal violence and rigging tendencies.13 As such, although Zimbabwe’s elections are not modelled along ethnic lines, alliance politics must not be overlooked. The following are possible coalitions likely to emerge and needing attention; a) SM –MM Factor Mutumwa and Simba might form a coalition that can garner a sizeable number of votes from the business community, ZANU PF moderates and reformed followers. Mawere has already joined the Presidential bid using a proposed coalition party United Movement for Democracy (UMDP) and his Vice is Biviana Musimi.14 Currently, it is known as composed of MDC 99 members. Mawere’s alliance with Simba Makoni, though not fatal, might prove retrogressive to electoral victory. Can this coalition happen? If yes, what will happen and how will it affect the MDC? b) SM –WN Factor Another possibility is the merging of Welshman and Simba in a bid to canvass ‘national’ support. Such an alliance will be costly to the MDC because it might sway some unsuspecting voters to the camp. This might prevent MT from winning in the first round, resulting in a compromised re-run election. c) MT-SM Factor Although the alliance might face resistance on the grassroots, it appears a workable compromise that can prevent loss of unnecessary votes and a dubious re-run election and RG is afraid of this possibility.15 WN and MDC99 would automatically lose flavour. Why? It steals disgruntled ZANU PF voters and presents a new picture on MT. What could this new picture be and who benefits? The party will have to explain its position to the people. Such an alliance will prevent the division of the vote and the re-run factor16. Is this a dangerous equation and does the MDC have anything to lose? What will be the public perception on the arrangement?17 d) SM-WN & DD Factor Dabengwa, Simba and Welshman may form a coalition. It has the same effect, which is, dividing the electorate and paving way for a problematic re-run. It can erode a sizeable 11Vapositori vow to vote for Mugabe: zimbabwesituation/feb25a_2013.html#Z1 12 Can Zimbabweans Muster A Grand Coalition For Change? radiovop/index.php/national-news/9945-can-zimbabweans-muster-a-grand-coalition-for-change.html 13Lessons from Kenya’s elections: thestandard.co.zw/2013/03/10/lessons-from-kenyas-elections/ 14Mutumwamaweremmawere/ / Mawere Joins Presidential Race thezimbabwean.co.uk/news/zimbabwe/60145/mawere-joins-presidential-race.html 15 Zapu, MDC, Mavambo say no to electoral pact with MDC-T: herald.co.zw/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=59521:zapu-mdc-mavambo-say-no-to-electoral-pact-with-mdc-t&catid=38:local-news&Itemid=131 16 MDCs to form grand coalition? newsday.co.zw/2012/12/29/mdcs-to-form-grand-coalition/ 17 The possibility of a united opposition for Zimbabwe’s 2013 elections: zimeye.org/?p=69887 11.03.2013 number of the electorate. The coalition might pose a challenge to the MDC because it does not include Zanu PF and ill-informed voters may vote for anything that is against Zanu PF. What could be the people’s perception on this coalition? Will it become an alternative force? How powerful will it become? What about if MM is added to the coalition as well? e) WN-RGM Factor Although unlikely, Ncube might merge with ZANU PF considering his waning support base and bleak future. He is one individual blind with confusion and capable of any dramatic action. The alliance will cost Ncube his small pockets of support in Matebeleland. Such an alliance might not be harmful to the MDC. The people of Matebeleland are most likely to be against anything to do with Zanu PF. If Ncube joins Zanu pf, SADC might change its stance on Zimbabwe. This is an awkward and unthinkable scenario, but politics is always with surprises. f) Welshman-Simba-ZANU PF Lack of ideological clarity and ideas might force Ncube and Simba to merge with ZANU PF, although such an alliance is unlikely to succeed or to see the light of the day. If formed, the coalition will not gain support in Matabeleland, but might be used by Zanu PF as a rigging scapegoat. The coalition may have a resemblance of a ‘national’ outlook. Is this true? Does the MDC still have the same political clout? If NO, then it’s possible that a national outlook may emerge with this unlikely coalition. WN –(SM –MM) –DD -(ZAPU-MDC-N-Mthwakazi) These individuals are enough to steer havoc in the electoral system and steal the limelight of the MDC to some extent. They are capable of winning the support of the business community, ZANUPF and MDC disgruntled supporters. They also offer a regional balance outlook. Their presence might change the complexion of the election and cause some confusion within the electorate18. ZAPU-WN pact has been hinted many times.19 Conclusion Should there be a new force – tragedy looms. Opinion polls in other countries have been close to reality and why should the MDC ignore them. A realistic strategy is necessary. On all accounts, SM seems a strategic partner. If WN, DD and Mthwkazi come together, it becomes more tribal, but can outwit the MDC from Matabeleland and factoring in SM balances the equation. However, military factor is not in the picture. MT seems not having many coalition options, but capitalizing on SM remains viable. By Charles Moyo (Universität Passau –Germany) & Edknowledge Mandikwaza (University of Reading –UK) 18 MDC-N, ZAPU coalition on the cards thezimbabwemail/zimbabwe/14743-mdc-n-zapu-coalition-on-the-cards.html 19 Coalition to fight Zanu-PF, MDC-T in Matabeleland and Midlands: bulawayo24/index-id-news-sc-regional-byo-24583.html
Posted on: Wed, 10 Jul 2013 05:24:53 +0000
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