Dinner with Soros Had a good discussion with George Soros and wife Tamiko last night at their place in Budapest - a very worldwise man, a very gracious woman. According to GS: - the world economy is basically ok for the next couple of years and quantitative easing will need to continue a bit, but then if China does not begin seriously transitioning to a consumer-based economy it will lose steam fast and become belligerent, and so in some significant measure will the global economy and world peace - the changes going in Iran are real and not cosmetic: Ahmedinejads control of the revolutionary guard and other coercive powers of the state did weaken Khameini and the Ayatollahs, who no longer can tightly control political development, Rouhani genuinely seeks to change Ahmedinejads policies for the better and can do so if he proceeds cautiously and convince the people on the street and in the bazaar to go along, which they appear ready to do. - this is perhaps the best time in Israels history to make peace, for a variety of reasons, but Israels leadership needs the will do it. - Obamas policies with respect to Syria, Iran and Egypt right now are about right. Russia is key to developments in the Middle East and the USA must work with Russia if there is to be any real hope of lessening turmoil there. The path to democracy is far from clear. - The rise of the anti-immigration and often anti-semitic right wing in the EU and eksewhere is worrisome. The promotion of secularism, science -- including, critically, social science -- and the search for truth based on awareness of fallibility is needed more than ever to combat intolerance towards an open society. - Popper, GSs tutor at LSE, never took GS serioisly as a philosopher, if he had he would probably have destroyed me, but popper also never took criticism very well, despite his own philosophy the only by being willing and able criticize received truth can science and society truly advance. Popper always thought that the criticism of naive falsificationism leveled against him by his student Imre Lakatos was conspiratorial in nature. Turns out that Lakatos was, in fact, member of a communist cell and needed to show loyalty by criticizing Poppers idea of democratic open society because the Party was threatening Lakatoss mate. Popper was not blind to the view that the axioms of a scientific framework are not themselves falsifiable, and encouraged his students to read Tom kuhn and even Paul Feyerabend.
Posted on: Thu, 24 Oct 2013 05:41:19 +0000
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