FXUS62 KFFC 070800 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 300 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A BREEZY... COOL NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING TO GRADUALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE... PARTS OF NORTH GA WILL LIKELY BE THE SLOWER TO CLEAR. OTHERWISE... MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY DESPITE THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS SHOW CURRENT NW WINDS SWINGING NE BY LATE THIS MORNING... THEN EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS SETS UP ANOTHER COOL...EASTERLY WEDGE TONIGHT THAT PERSISTS ON MONDAY. GFS AND NAM RH FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDING DATA ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS SPREADING BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES THE STATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING... AND PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED... THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEGINNING EARLY ON MONDAY... AND POSSIBLE POOL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ON MONDAY. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED... AND ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ON MONDAY... NOT SURE MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIP EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MOISTURE FIELDS ARE DEEPER. FOR NOW... PLAN TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT... MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST TOWARD MORNING. THEN THE CLOUDY... COOL EASTERLY WEDGE WILL HOLD HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. 39 && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RELATIVELY QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL LONG TERM IN STORE. MODELS IN BETTER CONSENSUS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES. STRONGER CAA KICKS IN AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY BACK DOOR CFP. NW FLOW ALOFT AND A TRANSLATED SFC RIDGE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. KEEPING A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR DECENT UPPER RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPS BUILDING INTO AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...THOUGH LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT OF AN UNLIKELY OUTLIER NOW KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSED OFF LONGER AND PUSHES IT DUE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NOT GOING TO BITE ON THIS ONE AND WILL KEEP WARMER TREND LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR NOW. BAKER && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... WIDESPREAD CLEARING IS OCCURRING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE... RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP BY 14Z TODAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS... THE NAM AND GFS RH FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOW MVFR LEVEL CIGS SPREADING INTO THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BY 06-09Z MON. WITH STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING... WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 09Z MON FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AT 8-10KTS. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS SPREADING BACK IN TONIGHT. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 56 35 49 33 / 0 0 10 5 ATLANTA 56 37 50 34 / 0 0 10 0 BLAIRSVILLE 57 31 50 30 / 0 5 10 5 CARTERSVILLE 57 35 49 32 / 0 0 10 0 COLUMBUS 61 38 53 35 / 0 0 10 0 GAINESVILLE 56 35 48 34 / 0 0 10 0 MACON 59 37 52 33 / 0 0 10 0 ROME 56 35 51 33 / 0 0 10 0 PEACHTREE CITY 58 33 51 31 / 0 0 10 0 VIDALIA 59 39 52 37 / 0 5 20 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...39 LONG TERM...BAKER AVIATION...39 daculaweather
Posted on: Sun, 07 Dec 2014 08:01:23 +0000
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