FXUS62 KFFC 210132 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 832 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 .UPDATE... WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... QUIET SHORT TERM AGAIN ON TAP WITH ONLY A WEAK PERTURBATION TRAVERSING THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE BEST OMEGA IS IN THE FAR NORTH CWA... THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH SATURATION TO WARRANT PRECIP AND HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT ANY POPS. SOME SW MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN FOR THE EARLY MORNING...THOUGH 975-MB RH FIELD NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MAY STRUGGLE TO HAVE MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY FOG IN WEST CENTRAL GA. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE TRANSLATED DRY FROPA ALONG WITH NW SFC WINDS...THOUGH STILL LOOKING PLEASANT WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE CLIMO. CLOUD COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTENING DOWN OF COLUMN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM INTO THE LONG TERM FOR END OF WEEK. BAKER LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRACK OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM... STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF LATE THURSDAY... THEN TRACK ACROSS NW FL AND SOUTH GA FRIDAY-SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WHILE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MAINLY THE MID 30S. THIS WINTRY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MILD AIR TEMPS AND ABOVE FREEZING GROUND TEMPS... ALL FAVORING A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 40S BY MID TO LATE MORNING EACH DAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECTING MAINLY WIDESPREAD STABLE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT COULD PRODUCE FROM NEAR ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA TO NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL GA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTH GA ON MONDAY. MODEL PROFILES ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO PARTS OF NORTH GA MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME... IT DOES APPEAR THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF AT LEAST FAR NORTH GA... SO STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES TO THIS POTENTIAL WINTRY WEATHER EVENT. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING... WITH COOL/DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. 39 AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IR IMAGERY JUST SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NW TOMORROW MORNING. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 42 64 35 57 / 5 5 5 5 ATLANTA 45 61 39 55 / 5 5 5 5 BLAIRSVILLE 37 55 31 52 / 5 5 5 5 CARTERSVILLE 38 59 31 55 / 5 5 5 5 COLUMBUS 44 67 41 61 / 5 5 10 10 GAINESVILLE 42 60 35 55 / 5 5 5 5 MACON 42 67 37 60 / 5 5 5 5 ROME 38 59 32 54 / 5 5 5 5 PEACHTREE CITY 39 63 34 56 / 5 5 5 10 VIDALIA 46 70 42 64 / 5 0 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ daculaweather
Posted on: Wed, 21 Jan 2015 01:32:33 +0000
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