FXUS62 KMLB 040912 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 412 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...WINDY WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION AT THE COAST THROUGH WED MORNING... ...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID WEEK... TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDY ONSHORE FLOW WITH ISOLATED MARINE SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENTLY A SECONDARY WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST ALONG WITH A BAND OF STRATOCU AND LIGHT SHOWERS. BEHIND IT...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE. WHILE INLAND WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER AT THE MOMENT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH...EXPECT TO SEE THEM QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE SURGE PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING LATE THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AS NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS IN TO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PENINSULA LAST EVENING SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 4-6KFT...WHICH WILL ONLY BE FURTHER REINFORCED THROUGH THE DAY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH THAT THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING CONFINED BELOW 4KFT... MEANING THAT ANY SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ASSERT ITSELF AS A STRATOCU DECK LEADING TO PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE ROUGH TO DANGEROUS SURF...AT A TIME WHEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AT THEIR ANNUAL PEAK. EXPECT TO SEE SURF CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATING THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 5 AM THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST. TUE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LONG FETCH OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB...COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ADVECT A SMALL COVERAGE OF MARINE SHOWERS WELL INLAND AND LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE BEACHES WHERE DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES OF 5-6 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SURF ZONE...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA WATER ADVANCING TO NEAR THE DUNE LINE IN SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...PRIMARILY 7-10 AM TUE-WED...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR THE TUE MORNING TIDE. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR ADVISORY FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCATIONS. WED-SUN...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LOW TOPPED ATLANTIC SHOWERS. GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL SEND ALL OF ITS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE US ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRUNG OUT SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG INTO THE FL PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A RESURGENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK WED/THU IN THE MID 80S...4-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. MINOR POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S NORTH/CENTRAL CWA AND LOWER/MID 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW. FARTHER INLAND...MINS WILL COOL TO MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT FRI-SUN. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN ROUGH...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK...AND CONTINUED BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BUILD SEAS AND QUICKLY RETURN COASTAL HAZARD THREATS. && .AVIATION... WIND SURGE TRAVERSING REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CIGS FL050-070 AND ISOLD -SHRA. NE WINDS BEHIND SURGE INCREASING TO 13-18KTS ALONG COAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25KTS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE E/NE SFC WND INCREASING TO 18-20KTS AFTER 14Z FOR ALL SITES WITH GUSTS 23-28KTS THROUGH 00Z. ISOLD ATLC -SHRA POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES...BEST COVERAGE ALONG COAST. INLAND SITES WILL SEE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10KTS AFTER 05/00Z WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15KTS AT COAST THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...SECONDARY WIND SURGE TRAVERSING WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS FURTHER INCREASED THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUOY 41009 REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM THIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY TIGHT KEEPING EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KTS AND GUSTY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS A RESULT OF THE SURGE...REACHING 8 TO 10FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 12FT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS WED AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO MAY NEED TO EXTEND ADVISORY THRU WED NIGHT ESP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BUT E/SE FLOW SLACKENS SUBSTANTIALLY TO 10 KT OR LESS BY THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND RESURGENCE OF 20 KNOT GRADIENT FLOW REDEVELOPS DOWN THE COAST BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...ALONG WITH REBUILDING SEAS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL WILL ADVECT SUFFICIENT OCEAN MOISTURE ONSHORE TO KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW FAR INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE VALUES DROP BRIEFLY TO 40 PERCENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED 20FT WINDS AROUND 20MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION VALUES WHICH WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS WED AND ESPECIALLY THU. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 68 82 69 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 80 64 85 67 / 20 20 10 10 MLB 81 73 84 75 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 81 74 85 76 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 80 64 84 66 / 20 20 10 10 SFB 81 65 85 67 / 20 20 20 10 ORL 80 66 84 68 / 20 20 10 10 FPR 81 74 83 76 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA- INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-BREVARD-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES LONG TERM...KELLY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 04 Nov 2013 09:12:40 +0000
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