FXUS62 KMLB 130706 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 305 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...MOISTURE POOLING ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES YIELDS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...40 PERCENT...FROM SOUTH BREVARD OSCEOLA SOUTH WHILE TO THE NORTH 30 PERCENT POP IS EXPECTED. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PLENTY OF SUN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL GIVE RISE TO SEA BREEZE FORMATION AT THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY WEST OVER THE INLAND AND INTERIOR COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WEAK/LIGHT WIND PROFILE THEREFORE STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS OF WATER ON ROADS LATE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FOR THE INTERIOR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH AND HALTED/SLOWED DOWN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL ARRIVE MUCH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY EVENING AND SUNSET. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOWER LAYERS DECOUPLE AND AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND BIG BEND AND THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS MERGE WITH EACH OTHER LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. SATURDAY...WEAK LOW LVL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MID LVL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT WITH MID LVL RIDGING REASSERTING ITSELF ACROSS S FL BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN RATHER LOW...ESPEC ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WITH PWATS BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS FOCUSING AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLC WILL KEEP LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH SOME INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE AND 40 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. HIGHS UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. MONDAY...SFC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NRN SECTIONS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS. WILL KEEP FAR NRN POPS AROUND 30 PCT AND 40 PCT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. HIGHS UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. TUE-FRI...ANOTHER LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF THE NE TO MID ATLC COAST INTO MID TO LATE WEEK KEEPING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE AROUND 40 PCT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH GFS HINTING AT MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER FOR THE PERIOD JUST BEYOND DAY 7 INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ELEVATED AT THE BEACHES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 15Z AT THE COAST THEN TEMPO MVFR 15Z-19Z AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH THEN VFR AFT 20Z. FOR THE INTERIOR VFR THROUGH 18Z THEN TEMPO MVFR FROM 19Z TO 2400Z AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE LITTLE DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION. VFR AGAIN AFTER 14/00Z. && .MARINE... CURRENT-TODAY-TONIGHT...THE NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS IN THE EVENING BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. SAT-SUN...LIGHT FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-3 FT ON SATURDAY. EAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE. MON-WED...EAST WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 72 91 75 / 30 20 30 20 MCO 92 73 93 73 / 30 20 30 20 MLB 88 72 89 77 / 40 20 30 20 VRB 88 71 90 76 / 40 20 30 20 LEE 93 74 93 75 / 30 20 30 20 SFB 92 74 93 75 / 30 20 30 20 ORL 93 75 93 76 / 30 20 30 20 FPR 87 70 89 75 / 40 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER LONG TERM....VOLKMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Fri, 13 Sep 2013 07:06:12 +0000
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