FXUS62 KMLB 150910 AAA AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 410 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC FROM THE CAROLINAS WITH EASTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ECFL. MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANLYS FIELDS SUGGESTING A WEAK MID (AND POSSIBLE LOW) LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NE FROM AROUND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA. FEW SPRINKLES COMING INTO SAINT LUCIE/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES FROM THE ATLC...BUT OF NIL CONSEQUENCE. TODAY/TONIGHT... MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE AND EAST ACROSS FL TODAY/TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF THE LOCAL AIR MASS...AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. AFOREMENTIONED WEAK MID LEVEL VORT TO THE SW OF FL WILL CROSS THE STATE IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT DRY AIR IN THE H85-H50 LAYER DOESNT APPEAR TO COMPLETELY SATURATE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. EXPECT WELL SEE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH VIRGA AND SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE MID DECK. BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE (LIGHT) RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE POST-SUNSET BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE IMPULSE MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLC. WHILE POPS GO FROM 30-50 TODAY TO 50-60 TONIGHT THIS ISNT LOOKING LIKE A HUGE QPF EVENT...ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL IS WELCOME GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCALES... ALTHOUGH SOME READINGS AROUND 80F WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN CWA...AS COASTAL AREAS THERE REMAIN IN THE L70S ATTM. SAT-SUN... THE DEEP HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT INTO THE NW ATLC...PULLED BY A 110KT H25 JET MAX OVER ERN CANADA AND PUSHED BY A 100KT ZONAL JET MAX OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A PERSISTENT E/SE SFC/LOW LVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU LATE SUNS AS THE RIDGE ELONGATES...BEFORE VEERING TO THE S/SW SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL TROF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MILD WX PATTERN ACRS CENTRAL FL THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABV AVG FOR MID NOV. MAXES IN THE L/M80S WILL BE 5-8F ABV AVG...MINS IN THE M/U60S INTERIOR AND U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST WILL BE 10-15F ABV AVG. UPSTREAM...A STRONG 160KT JET STREAK PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF AK WILL ADD ITS ENERGY TO THE TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE WRN U.S... ALLOWING IT TO CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT NE WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE INDUCED MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL FORCE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BTWN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA BANK TO RETROGRADE INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. THIS WILL GENERATE A S/SWRLY FLOW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR THAT WILL GENERATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LCL AIRMASS WILL BECOME FULLY MODIFIED S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.8-2.0 RANGE. HOWEVER...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET BECOMES ZONAL WHILE THE MID LVL RIDGE BLOCKS OUT ANY SIG VORT IMPULSES. WITH SUCH HI PWAT VALUES ITS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POPS...BUT WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE WILL EXPECT IT WILL BE LOW QPF STRATIFORM RAIN OR SHALLOW CONVECTION AT BEST. MON-THU... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREV FCST REASONING AS THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE WX PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS THRU MIDWEEK. A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL DVLP ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND ERN CANADA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. HOWEVER...IT WILL FORM TOO FAR TO THE N TO CRANK THE COLD FRONT CLEAN THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA...LEAVING MOST OF ITS SWD PUSH TO THE POST FRONTAL POLAR AIRMASS. EVEN THIS WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW THAT WILL CARRY THE BULK OF THE RIDGE MORE TO THE E/NE ACRS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION THAN E/SE INTO THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH REGION. HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE GETS CAUGHT IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...BUT IS LIKELY WILL LAY DOWN IN A WSW-ENE ORIENTATION OVER THE FL PANHANDLE BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH MIDWEEK. ECMWF INDICATES THE FRONTAL TROF WILL HAVE HAVE A LITTLE MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS SOLUTION AND THUS INDICATES THE FRONT PUSHING INTO S FL BEFORE STALLING BY 00Z WED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE ECX MOS GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE MEX MOS AFT 12Z TUE THOUGH TEMP DIFFERENCES ARE LARGELY INSIGNIFICANT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION THRU MIDWEEK AS A STRONG NE FLOW DVLPS WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE ERN CONUS...THOUGH ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LOW-TOPPED SHRAS WITH LIMITED QPF POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION... VFR. WIDESPREAD CIGS AOA 200 WITH LCL BKN050-060 ALONG THE COAST. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO BKN060-100 BY LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING. LCL MVFR VSBYS PSBL IN LIGHT RAIN...ALTHOUGH CIGS IN PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...CURRENT BUOY/C-MAN OBS COUPLED WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLIER/FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AS SUCH...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED SCA... GOING WITH AN SCA FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE SCA WILL EXPIRE NEAR SHORE (0-20NM) AT 10 AM...AND WILL RUN UNTIL 4PM FROM 20-60NM. OTHERWISE ONLY A VERY SLOW DECREASE IN SEAS IS INDICATED AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE 12-17KT RANGE. SAT-SUN...DEEP HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE WRN GOMEX WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU THE WEEKEND. ERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS IN THE 4-5FT RANGE THRU SUNDAY EVNG...DECREASING TO 3-4FT SUN NIGHT. MON-MON NIGHT...THE HI PRES WILL ERODE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FL THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE EVNG. LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU MOST OF THE DAY. NORTH OF THE CAPE...WINDS BCMG A GENTLE W/SW AFT SUNSET...THEN FRESHENING OUT OF THE N AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. SOUTH OF THE CAPE...WINDS BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW AFT SUNSET...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE W THRU DAYBREAK. SEAS 3-4FT THRU THE DAY...BUILDING TO 4-6FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. TUE-TUE NIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY...BCMG HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG BUT SHALLOW POST FRONTAL RIDGE PUSHES THE COLD FRONT INTO S FL. MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE BREEZE EARLY BCMG FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE NE AREAWIDE BY SUNSET WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...THEN 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ROUGH SHORT PD WAVES EXPECTED DUE TO THE PREVAILING NRLY WIND COMPONENT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 68 80 70 / 50 50 30 20 MCO 76 66 82 67 / 40 60 40 30 MLB 77 71 82 72 / 30 50 40 20 VRB 79 72 82 72 / 30 60 40 20 LEE 74 66 82 67 / 50 50 40 30 SFB 76 68 82 67 / 50 50 40 20 ORL 77 67 82 67 / 50 60 40 30 FPR 79 72 82 73 / 20 50 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Fri, 15 Nov 2013 09:10:27 +0000
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