FXUS62 KMLB 200750 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 350 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY/TONIGHT...AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. WENT IN BETWEEN MAV/MET MOS NUMBERS WITH POPS AROUND 60 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOTH COASTS AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES AND WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. BREAKS IN THE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THEN WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS CONVECTION INCREASES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AS THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY INTO LATE TONIGHT. SUN-MON...PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING PATTERN EVOLUTION REMAINS INTACT. AXIS OF WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND STRETCH ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. LOCAL ATMOSPHERE RATHER MOIST AGAIN FOR SUN WITH 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES OF PWAT (SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL) TO BOAST POPS ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN. MAV POPS FOR SUN HAVE JUMPED UPWARD ABOVE 70 PERCENT FOR MOST OF ECFL WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE. MET POPS ALSO ABOVE CLIMO...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE...SO WILL TEND TO GO WITH MET IN THAT REGARD. MON PATTERN NOT MUCH DIFFERENT BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST A MEASURE OF DEEP LAYER DRYING...AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE FOR THE SOUTH PENINSULA. POPS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND CLIMO 35-40 PERCENT MON. CONVECTION FAVORS EAST HALF OF PENINSULA EACH DAY. HI TEMPS U80S/L90S SUN AND L/M90S MON. LO TEMPS M70S. TUE-FRI...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS STUBBORN INTO TUE DESPITE TROUGHING AT SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...GFS TROUGHING THEN IMPINGES FROM THE NORTH ON THE FORECAST AREA MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS TO WEAKEN/SHUNT RIDGE AXIS...AND PROMPT A SEAWARD RETREAT OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. UPWARD LIFT MAY GET AN EXTRA KICK AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH PENINSULA. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES JUST ABOVE CLIMO. SEE NO REASON TO OVERCOMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS GIVEN THE MODEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. HI TEMPS IN L90S EACH DAY...LO TEMPS M70S. POPS 40-50 PERCENT...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH AREA. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME BRIEF TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS FROM PATCHY STRATUS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10-13Z. BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS IN CIG/VIS THOUGH WILL BE FROM INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND WITH ANY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SUN-MON...RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH WITH PATTERN SUPPORTING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE. EXPECT OFFSHORE PUSHING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 74 90 74 / 60 40 60 30 MCO 90 74 91 74 / 60 30 60 30 MLB 89 76 89 73 / 60 40 60 30 VRB 88 75 89 74 / 60 40 60 30 LEE 90 75 92 76 / 60 30 60 20 SFB 91 74 91 75 / 60 30 60 30 ORL 90 74 91 76 / 60 30 60 30 FPR 88 76 89 73 / 60 40 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...99 PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sat, 20 Jul 2013 07:50:36 +0000
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