FXUS62 KMLB 221444 AAA AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1040 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 .DISCUSSION... MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE MID LEVELS AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SOME SFC HEATING THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ESP NEAR THE COAST. MELBOURNE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ITS RECORD HIGH OF 89 SET IN 2006. BUT A SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. && .AVIATION... STRATUS DIMINISHING AND WILL BE REPLACED WITH HEALTHY SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD. SCT SHRAS AND ISOLD STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY BE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS TO SOME TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND SHOWERS/ISO STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. && .MARINE... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EVE. SEAS 2-3 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 68 82 59 / 50 50 30 10 MCO 88 70 83 61 / 40 40 40 10 MLB 88 71 84 66 / 40 30 50 20 VRB 89 71 86 67 / 40 30 50 20 LEE 86 71 82 59 / 40 50 30 10 SFB 87 70 83 60 / 40 50 40 10 ORL 88 72 83 62 / 40 50 40 10 FPR 89 70 85 68 / 40 30 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ KELLY/SEDLOCK PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Tue, 22 Oct 2013 14:44:39 +0000
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