FXUS62 KMLB 240257 AAA AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 955 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT... ...MOSTLY OVERCAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RATHER POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT REACHING NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THERE IS A N/NW WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WIND SPEEDS ONLY PICK UP TO 10 MPH OR SO. THE PRES GRAD WILL TIGHTEN LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1045 MB) OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS EAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE ESP ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST WITH WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...10-15 MPH OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. TONIGHT/SUNDAY (MODIFIED)...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL APPROACH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG SURGE IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW BEHIND THIS FRONT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHES EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MARINE STRATOCU DECK WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND INLAND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...KEEPING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S OVER NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO MID 70S OVER OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE SRN TREASURE COAST. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL N/NE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE AND MAINLY IMPACT THE COAST FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH RAIN CHANCES UP TO 30-50 PERCENT. && .AVIATION...(MODIFIED) VFR CONDS EXPECTED INTO LATE EVENING BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG N/NE WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND TRANSPORT A MARINE STRATOCU DECK WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ONSHORE. IN ADDITION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS WILL REACH THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCING TEMPO IFR CONDS. ON SUNDAY N/NE WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 16-20 KNOTS INLAND AND UP TO 20-23 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT ABOUT TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES (VOLUSIA COUNTY) WHICH WILL PRODUCE A NW WIND SHIFT. THERE WILL BE SOME DELAY BEFORE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN SO THE CURRENT START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD. MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE WIND GUST GRIDS WHICH INDICATE THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION. TONIGHT/SUNDAY (PREVIOUS)...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 10-12 FEET OFFSHORE. HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED UP THE START TIMES A FEW HOURS DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 60 64 62 73 / 30 20 20 20 MCO 62 68 55 75 / 20 20 10 10 MLB 66 70 68 75 / 20 40 20 20 VRB 67 73 69 77 / 10 50 20 20 LEE 60 65 51 73 / 20 20 10 10 SFB 62 67 55 74 / 20 20 10 10 ORL 63 68 55 74 / 20 20 10 10 FPR 64 73 69 76 / 10 50 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ KELLY/SEDLOCK PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 24 Nov 2013 02:58:02 +0000
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