FXUS62 KMLB 280747 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 347 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE AND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH KEEPING SKIES TO THE NORTH...APPROACHING THE AREA...MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH ALSO KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE/LOOPS WAS SHOWING THAT A SMALL DRY SLOT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS PUSHED TAMPA BAYS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 1.4 WHILE BOTH TALLAHASSEE AND JACKSONVILLE/S PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE 1.95 AND MIAMI/S WAS 2.25 INCHES OF WATER. TODAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OVER FLORIDA DURING THE DAY AND EAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT. DO NOT KNOW IF THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BUT THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONG WITH ITS VORTICITY FORECASTS OVER FLORIDA AND A BULLSEYES LOOKING CIRCULAR PATTERN THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HINDER SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS SUGGESTS A LATE START TO STORMS AGAIN WITH MOVEMENT BACK TO THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. HIGHS LOWER 90S INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COASTAL COUNTIES. TONIGHT...GFS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERTOP FLORIDA BUT FILLING/WEAKENING. EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY A RESULT OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THROUGH MID EVENING THEN STORMS ENDING BY LATE EVENING. CLOUD COVER THINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. MON...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A 500MB CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. A BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE AND FEATURE ALOFT...WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO MOS POPS WHICH HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 PERCENT FOR THE NORTH INTERIOR AND 30-40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH THIS WET SEASON...MOS MAX TEMPS LOOK A FEW DEGREES ON THE HIGH SIDE AND HAVE CAPPED THEM AT 93 INLAND AND 91 ON THE COAST. TUE...THE WEAK 500MB CUT OFF SHOULD DIMINISH BUT LOW-MID LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.7-2.0 INCHES. THIS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED POPS...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS. WED-SUN...LOW-MID LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WED BUT SOME DRYING IS FORECAST TO ADVECT UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND APPROACHING LOW IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD LOWER POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT EXCEPT 30 PERCENT FOR THE NORTH INTERIOR. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO OUR NORTH FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL BETWEEN THE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS USUALLY POINTS TO THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND WILL GO 40 PERCENT THERE MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SLOW TRANSITION SOUTH OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY START TO PUSH THESE 40 PERCENT POPS BACK TO THE COAST IN OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH MINS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND 91-93 DEGREES INLAND. && .AVIATION...SOME SHALLOW MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE THEN VFR THROUGH NOON. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. VFR BY MIDNIGHT. && .MARINE... NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 42NM EAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. NOAA BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEARSHORE BECOMING ONSHORE MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WHEN THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. STORMS COMING OFF THE LAND MID AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM. MON-THU...OVERALL THE ATLANTIC RIDGE LOOKS RATHER BROAD WITH THE PREDOMINANT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EXCEPT SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...AND EVEN 10 KNOTS OR LESS MOST OF THE TIME. THE WAVE WATCH BRINGS IN SOME LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL EARLY IN THE WEEK SO SEAS SHOULD RUN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED FOR THESE WIND SPEEDS (4-5 FEET OFFSHORE). SOME OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE MAINLAND MAY PUSH BACK ACROSS THE COAST ON MON/TUE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD... THEN DRYING AND A MORE SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WED-THU. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 73 90 74 / 50 20 40 20 MCO 92 73 92 74 / 50 20 50 20 MLB 89 73 89 75 / 30 20 30 20 VRB 89 73 89 74 / 30 20 30 20 LEE 91 74 93 76 / 50 20 50 20 SFB 92 74 93 76 / 50 20 50 20 ORL 91 75 93 77 / 50 20 50 20 FPR 88 72 88 74 / 30 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER LONG TERM....LASCODY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 28 Jul 2013 07:47:26 +0000
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