FXUS62 KMLB 290853 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 353 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.... ...RAW DAY ON TAP WITH COLDER TEMPS...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA... CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NRN VOLUSIA COUNTY. MID LYR LIFT WAS ALLOWING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN N OF I-4 MOVING NE ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW FL. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LAKE KISSIMMEE TO VERO BEACH LINE. TODAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE SFC FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN ZONES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND ACROSS THE SRN ZONES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A LOW LVL STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RAW AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING MAINLY IN THE 50S. MORNING HIGHS INTO THE 60S CENTRAL ZONES TO LWR 70S SRN AREAS WILL STAY STEADY AND DROP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...THOUGH NSSL WRF RUN INDICATES MORE HEALTHY CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF MARTIN COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED LIGHTNING THREAT OUT OF THE FAR SOUTH FOR NOW...AS POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE 70-80 PCT RAIN CHANCE WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 50 TO THE LWR 50S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHARPEN THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS OR JUST OFFSHORE FROM EAST CENTRAL FL. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NNE LOW LVL FLOW WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE H9-H8 LAYER WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER JET FROM THE NE GULF ALONG THE S ATLC COAST WILL ALSO PROVIDE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER LIFT. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 70-80 PCT RANGE WITH CHANCE FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN BANDS LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYER OVERCAST CLOUDS EXPECTED. A LARGE RANGE EXPECTED IN LOW TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 40 ACROSS NRN LAKE COUNTY TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COAST. THU-FRI..DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE LATE OVERNIGHT THU AND CONTINUES TO DECREASE FRI AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BE WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIKELY POP THU DUE TO A COMBINATION OFF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA AND SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH MOVE OVERTOP OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL/250MB JET MOVING OVERHEAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA ALSO PROVIDES LIFT TO SUPPORT LIKELY POP. THY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WET WITH 30 POP NORTH AND 50 POP SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK DOWN THE PENINSULA AND LEAVE CENTRAL FLORIDA CHANCE FRI EVENING. QUITE A RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THU WITH MID AND UPPER 50S ORLANDO AND DAYTONA NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTY WHICH WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS OVERNIGHT THU SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ORLAND DAYTONA BEACH NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS MELBOURNE COCOA BEACH SOUTH. FRI HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S NORTH INTERIOR...ORLANDO AND DAYTONA BEACH TO THE LOW 80S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FORT PIERCE SOUTH. SAT-WED...SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN AN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUN. DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND WELL EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK BY TUE. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY THEN BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUE AND WED AS A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF...FLORIDA AND BAHAMA ISLANDS HELPS TO PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH WHICH ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD ACROSS FLORIDA. HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION... IFR TO LIFR OVC CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY IMMEDIATE POST-FROPA AIR MASS WITH CIGS RISING A LITTLE AS COOL AIR DEEPENS SOME...BUT PROBABLY STILL STRADDLING IFR/MVFR OVC008-015 THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR AT VRB-FPR-SUA IN DENSE FOG AND STRATUS 09Z-14Z AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY. LIFR/IFR CIGS NRN TERMINALS TONIGHT TO MVFR FAR SRN TERMINALS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN 00Z-06Z...WITH SOME MDT RA AFT 06Z. && .MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE E CENTRAL FL ATLC WATERS. NO CHANGES TO SCA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-10 FT OFFSHORE. HAVE KEPT NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND MAY BE HIGHER IF NAM VERIFIES WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OR SHARPENING OFFSHORE. THU-THU NIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BACK TO 10-15 KTS AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY FALL BACK TO 6-7 FT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE DAY AND 5-6 FT NEAR SHORE. A CONTINUATION OF SUBSIDING SEAS/DECREASING WINDS FOR THU NIGHT. FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS WITH A RESIDUAL NE-E SWELL. && .FIRE WEATHER...OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THU WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS WELL AS A FOG CONCERN ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 52 48 60 53 / 80 80 60 30 MCO 59 47 61 54 / 80 80 60 30 MLB 64 54 66 60 / 70 80 70 40 VRB 70 58 70 60 / 70 80 70 40 LEE 53 40 56 49 / 80 80 60 30 SFB 54 47 59 53 / 80 80 60 30 ORL 58 47 59 54 / 80 80 60 30 FPR 70 62 70 61 / 70 70 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER LONG TERM....WIMMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 29 Jan 2014 08:54:22 +0000
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