Firstly I was asked to produce a ‘low nuclear’ scenario, to go alongside its planned High Nuclear and Intermediate nuclear scenarios. That made me worry about the mindset of the British Pugwash group! I said no, it had to be a non-nuclear mix, since, unlike the UK, that was what many countries around the world were now aiming for, or already enjoyed. So we agreed instead that I should produce a High Renewables scenario. Secondly, I was asked to run it through DECCs Pathways 2050 Calculator. I said I wasn’t a great enthusiast or practitioner of modeling, but NATTA member Dr David Finney helpfully stepped in and so we tried. Thirdly, I was aware that there were already many dozens of studies based on achieving 100% renewable futures, including some for the UK, Germany, Denmark, the EU as a whole, the US, Australia and the world – I’ve counted 60 or so. More are emerging. Why do another? But we did and it has I hope been a worthwhile exercise. Much as I expected, it proved to be relatively easy to meet projected electricity demand by 2050 from renewables, mainly offshore wind (76GW) and onshore wind (30GW) but also wave and tidal stream, biomass and geothermal CHP and solar PV, plus hydro. I based our scenario on an existing one from Poyry which generated 94% of UK electricity from renewables by 2050 although we cut its offshore wind allocation by a half, to be cautious. delliott6.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/pugwash-report.html
Posted on: Wed, 18 Jun 2014 21:12:54 +0000
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