Football 2013 College FB As all handicappers, I face the daily conundrum of whether to follow momentum, or look for the letdown or bounceback. The bottom line is it is always about seeking value. I have 34 years experience, great expertise and work very hard to isolate the best College FB games on the card each week. If you consistently follow my advice, you will win with me this season. I look forward to sharing my winning analysis with you and counting you among the members of my winning team. NFL 2013 In an NFL era where passing the football is in vogue and defenders can only tackle within the MLB strike zone, it remains amazing that the most consistent way to isolate NFL winners is by determining who will dominate the line of scrimmage. I have made it my mission during my 34 year NFL career to isolating just such occurrences in competitively priced games. This is the best way to win in the NFL on a consistent basis. I invite you to become a part of my selections using this unique methodology following my advice consistently this season will put you on the winning path and prove to you why I am the all time winner in Net Profit in Football and Basketball. Each week, I write my Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter with 25 College Football winners and every NFL game. I release it on Wednesdays and Fridays. The analysis comes from hard work and dedication and, if you like football, it is a great read. Buy the newsletter for $132 for the season and receive one week of my Executive Late Phone Service College and Pro Football. Find out what others know...I am #1 Net Profit Winner since 1979. Call my office at 724-715-7186 or respond to this email. WAYS TO GET MY GAMES: • Top 12 College and Top 6 NFL on the Winning Sports Advice Site or • Get them all on the Winning Sports Advice iTunes App • Whether you get the Newsletter, Executive Service, winningsportsadvice site or the App bit.ly/9tyF9D It’s fast and easy and we will win together. I do my homework so you don’t have to. Part of my newsletter this week…. POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS NEWSLETTER By: JOE GAVAZZI, WINNING SPORTS ADVICE 2013 ISSUE 3, THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12 – SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14 USING THE NET AFP AS CONTRARY INDICATOR In last week’s issue, we touched on The Handicappers Conundrum that he faces each week when handicapping the CFB card. Namely, that is whether we wish to follow POSITIVE MOMENTUM V. LETDOWN, or BOUNCEBACK V. NEGATIVE MOMENTUM. The easiest of those options is to follow momentum either positive or negative. In other words, as a handicapper, we simply react to what we saw in recent games and continue the course. Eventually the line becomes over adjusted and the momentum shifts with teams returning to their expected norm. One way in which we can isolate such return to norm is using the AFP number. That is, how far a team has outperformed or underperformed the line in recent outings, based on the numerical ATS difference from the opening line. When the combination of such dichotomous events occurs in the same game, we have our best chance at a return to form. The chart below shows 4 games on this week’s card that features a matchup of teams that pits positive momentum v. negative momentum. These have potential for contrary results, as each of these teams has either underperformed or outperformed the line by 20 or more points for the year to date, while their opponent has done the opposite. As always, the secret is to search for value presented by such events. This includes often going inside the box score to review PERCEPTION/REALITY GAMES that have skewed the results through turnovers, big plays, or injuries. That is exactly the task I undertake each weekend in handicapping these 25 CFB games for you. If you followed the advice last Saturday, the results were 14-9 ATS (61%). Let’s do better than that this Saturday. TEAM SU ATS AFP YTD AFP LW TO YTD OPP SU ATS AFP YTD TO YTD AFP CONTRARY INDICATOR NET TO MAR TCU 1-1 0-2 -28 -22 +1 TTRR 2-0 2-0 +21 -2 TCU -49 NET AFP +3 Ohio 1-1 1-1 -19 +2 +2 Marshall 2-0 2-0 +34 +13 Ohio -53 NET AFP -3 Conn. 0-1 0-1 -32 -32 -1 Mary 2-0 2-0 +33 +19 Conn. -65 NET AFP -1 Oregon St. 1-1 0-2 -37 -7 1 Utah 2-0 2-0 +43 +40 Ore. St. -80 NET AFP -2 Thursday, September 12, 2013 Tulane at LA Tech (-7-) 7:30 ET FS1 You gotta take any job you can get these days! Just ask Skip Holtz, who after rebuilding the E. Caro. program slumped badly in his 3 year gig at USF where his teams slipped from 8 to 5 to 3 victories while Holtz was posting a 12-22 ATS record. Now Holtz has landed in Ruston where he inherits a La Tech team who averaged 51 PPG LY in going 9-3 SU under former 3 year HC Dykes. The problem is that Holtz also inherits a 526 YPG defense and only 7 RS, for the least experienced team in CFB. The result has been a very predictable 0-2 ATS start at NC State and last week in an uninspiring 27-14 win, no cover, v. outclassed Lamar. That means both Holtz and La Tech enter on a 0-7 ATS slide. That decline means Holtz enters tonight’s game on a personal run of 4-19 ATS. His pointspread personality profile precedes him as the dog in Holtz coached games is 62-33 ATS with Holtz posting a record of 19-31 ATS as favorite. Far prefer a Tulane team who under 2d year HC Johnson is rebounding from an injury plagued season of last year. They blew one at home to South Alabama last week 41-39 leaving them hungry for tonight’s action. That defeat certainly was not the fault of QB Montana, son of Joe, who led the Greenies to 327 yards through the airways. Saturday, September 14, 2013 Louisville (-13-) at Kentucky Noon ET ESPN Love is pouring forth for a veteran Louisville team led by 16 RS including Heisman candidate QB Bridgewater who has averaged 406 PYPG in the Cardinals home field romps against outmanned Ohio and E. Kentucky, 93-14. But the competition stiffens today against SEC Kentucky who after their week 1 embarrassment against W. Kentucky got a feel- good 41-7 bounceback win against outmanned Miami, Oh in which they outgained the Red Hawks 675-122. That included 413 PY by the new Kentucky “Air Raid”. Now, first year HC Stoops must translate some of that offensive success in at least staying competitive against what is quickly become the state’s best FB program. Look for a huge effort by the avenging home dog who has outgained 373-280 in a 32-14 defeat last season. Cards get the victory but we get the money with this very contrary value laden side. Georgia Tech (-8) at Duke 3:30 ET ESPNU Duke back up QB Connette replaces injured starter QB Boone (shoulder) but the offense may not skip a beat. In a pair of victories against outmanned Chattanooga and Memphis by a combined count of 73-14, the Blue Devils have shown increased offensive balance averaging 215 yards overland and 264 yards through the air. With 15 RS, expect that continuity to lead to another potential Bowl bid with a manageable schedule. Of equal note, is that against outmanned foes, Duke has allowed just 7/210 including 85/2.7 overland. Today comes the real test of that defense. Under 6th year HC Johnson, Tech has been known for fast starts. In 2008, Tech started 6-1 SU, 5-0 ATS, in 2009 10-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, in 2010 5-2 SU, 3-3ATS, in 2011 6-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, and LY 2-1 SU, 2-0 ATS. The Jackets have had two weeks to prepare since destroying outmanned Elon 70-0 with a +4 TO margin and 368-89 overland edge. Improvements from the 7-7 SU, 8-5 ATS team of 2012 include explosive QB Lee and the addition of DC Roof. Expect it to translate into more early season excellence for the Jackets. Tennessee at Oregon (-27-) 3:30 ET ABC An ESPN special highlighted the upgraded facilities at Nike U, a.k.a. Autzen Stadium, hosted by Duck QB Mariotta. He acted as tour guide for the ESPN cameras in showing the world the most magnificent CFB facilities in the nation. Included is a training area in which the Ducks are, to a man, taught to increase their speed. It certainly has shown in the first two games as The Flock has rolled over outmanned Nicholls 66-3 then traveled 3,000 miles east to destroy Virginia 59-10. The 2 week tally shows an average of 425/10.0 overland and 665 YPG on 9.5 YP play. Last week, Tennessee won 52-20 v. W. Kentucky. But it was one of the biggest phony finals of the week. W. Kentucky actually won yardage 393-383 but Tennessee took advantage of 7 WKU TOs when the Hilltoppers turned the ball over on 5 of 6 OFFENSIVE PLAYS. Must note, however, that the Ducks have been slowed by the power tactics of Stanford in recent meetings. An MO that Tennessee will be sure to note as they bring one of the nation’s best and most experienced OLs 3,000 miles west. Huge test for an SEC 4 TD dog under 1st year HC Jones. Perhaps greatest concern is that while former HC Kelley took his foot off the pedal, new HC Helfrich has outscored the opposition 59-0 in second halves. Boston College at USC (-14) 3:00 ET BC off to a 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS start (at home) for new HC Addazio. It’s a good start toward redemption for an Eagle team who dipped to 2-10 SU, 3-8 ATS with a 30/456 D in the final year under HC Spaziani. This week, however, the BC resurgence is temporarily delayed. Was it that meaningful in the first place? Considering that they were outrushed by Villanova 200-118 and played a far more even game with Wake (failed twice in the Red Zone) than the 24-10 final score indicates. This is more about USC whose issues with HC Kiffin and at the signal caller spot came to fruition last week. It was an embarrassing 10-7 home defeat to Washington St., when the Trojans could put up just a 193 total yards against the sieve-like defense of the Pullman Puma. This week, Kiffin has chosen QB Kessler as his starter and will crack the whip during practice. Against an outmanned BC team; look for the Trojans at this reduced price (due to the recent runs of 3-12 and 0-5 ATS) to bounceback for a 3 TD win. Mississippi St. at Auburn (-6-) 7:00 ET ESPN2 This a contrary call against a world that seems to be focused on the 0-6 ATS recent road dog mark of 5th year Miss St. HC Mullen, and enamored with the prospects of Auburn since the return of now HC Malzahn. But the Bulldog defense was staunch in week 1 when they allowed just 21 pts. to an explosive Okla. St. Last week, State got a confidence building win 51-7 v. Alcorn in a well balanced offensive performance where they ran and passed for 277 + yards. Don’t believe the Auburn defensive issues are completely resolved. This is a team whose 8 RS on defense allowed 29 PPG and 415 YPG L2Y combined. In week 1, they were outgained by Wash. St. 464-396. While last week, Ark St. put up 422 yards despite converting it into only 9 points. Too many to give to a Miss. St. team who has been a winner and Bowl participant in each of the last 3 seasons. This one will go a long way toward deciding the post-season prospects of each of these teams. Washington (-9-) v. Illinois 6:00 ET BIG10TV Chicago, Illinois I have long been an advocate, and profitably so, of fading home dogs (home neutral in this case) following a big upset win. And that is exactly what the Illini pulled last week when they controlled the proceedings in a 45-17 upset victory against Cincinnati. In so doing, the Illini joined the 200 Club by gaining 522 yards. No doubt, that 2d year HC Beckman has aided the confidence and efficiency of QB Scheelhaase by bringing in new OC Cubit to employ an up tempo, no huddle, spread offense. After just 17 PPG last season, the Illini are now averaging 44 PPG. But that hasn’t solved question marks on the defensive side of the ball where, after allowing 32PPG in Beckman’s first season, the Illini have allowed 432 YPG against S. Illinois and Cinci. Far prefer the resurgent Husky in the 5th year of HC Sarkisian. Combination of the clever play calling of Sark and his vet QB Price (reportedly being tutored by Seahawk QB Wilson) lit up Boise opening week. In that 38-6 opening day victory, Washington gained a balanced 592 offensive yards while holding Boise to just 346. 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Posted on: Thu, 12 Sep 2013 21:12:59 +0000
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