Forecast Thoughts... The radar is quiet, with mostly cloudy skies observed across Southwestern Arkansas with temperatures holding in the middle to upper 70s across the region. The temperatures are likely to remain into the middle 70s through the overnight hours. The weather models have been terribly in- consistent with these short-waves moving through the region which is causing significant busts to forecast. I am hoping these latest models that have come out will do a better job, but a few are slacking and have been tossed aside. The 18z GFS is saying that it is supposed to rain at almost an inch at 9 PM with rain continuing through sunrise. The 0z GFS has picked up with rainfall across the region too, and it is not doing anything so have thrown out these models. The part of the reason is they are not picking up on the moisture/lift parameters very well at all overdoing the rain chances. The NAM/HRRR initialized dry between 9PM and 2 AM, and for the most part it is correct. These two models have development across Southwestern Arkansas between 3-7 AM on Monday Morning. The thing is the coverage is more isolated-scattered than anything, and cant really promise a decent coverage of activity... The NAM says a good bit of coverage across Southwestern Arkansas/Southeast Oklahoma/Northeast Texas in a couple of hours. This is what it said to on Saturday Night, and we were left bone dry with the exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms. With all this said...I have no choice but to drop the rain chances slightly to a 40%. Going to watch Tuesday due to the potential of inclement of weather across W TN/NE AR/KY with the potential of isolated tornadoes/damaging winds due to extreme instability/shear/and forcing. A few thunderstorms are possible in Arkansas, with an isolated strong storm but coverage is very low across SW AR. An upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to build across the region shutting off rain chances pretty much for the rest of the week. Temperatures are expected to reach the middle/upper 90s. A 100 degree reading is not out of the realm of possibility.
Posted on: Mon, 18 Aug 2014 04:38:55 +0000
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