Former director of the NHC, Max Mayfield, has posted this on his - TopicsExpress

Former director of the NHC, Max Mayfield, has posted this on his blog. Five days from now, the NHC probabilities show a 12 percent chance of Dorian dissipating, 30 percent chance of being a tropical depression, 52 percent chance of being a tropical storm, and only a 6 percent chance of being a hurricane. Anytime we have a tropical cyclone in the deep tropical Atlantic, we should keep a close eye on it, but the most likely scenario at this time is for Dorian to be low-end tropical storm by the time it nears the northeastern Caribbean.

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