Good Evening 6-28-13… Well… the next 3 months will all be about tight old crop inventory level vs. prospects a big crop if weather doesn’t make a turn to the worst during the late July /early August time window. USDA’s June 1st stocks numbers were put at 2.784 billion bushels for corn, 81 million bushels less than the average trade guess based upon USDA’s current balance sheet projection. Therefore, traders will look for USDA to bump up feed and residual use on the July report and lower ending stocks a 100 million bushel s or something down around 650 million bushels. Soybean stocks were put at 435 million bushels, down slightly from trade expectations of 442 million bushels. Given current demand pace the ending stocks level of soybeans could fall 10 to 15 million bushels or something just above 100 million bushels before the marketing comes to a close. The bearish twist in the report came from a planted corn acreage number of 97.4 million. That was not only above the average trade estimate of 95.3 but above last year’s acreage level of 97.2. It’s interesting to note that we planted more corn during the slowest planting season on record vs. the fastest planning season on record. USDA survey into June 15th so, I suspect there’s up to a couple million acres that were in the intended category that may have never gotten planted. They either went to soybeans or in the prevent plant category. A point of interest, USDA used a larger percentage of un-harvested area than average which accounts for about a million acres. USDA will re-survey the late planted areas during July and adjust acreage levels according on the August report. Soybeans plantings were slightly smaller than the average trade guess at 77.7 million but smaller than last year’s level of 77.2 million. H. Dan Zwicker Dan.Zwicker@cgb
Posted on: Fri, 28 Jun 2013 19:32:44 +0000
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