Good Monday morning! For the past few days, I have been talking about this big change in the weather and it pretty much followed the script....except for one thing....the wrap-around plume of moisture that has brought some heavy rainfall to parts of Amarillo! This is why I scoff at the so-called, Amarillo Effect as sometimes, Amarillo gets MORE rain that surrounding areas and this morning is a great example of that! Ive attached the SchoolNet maps (as of 5:15am) showing the current temps in white and the rainfall from yesterday and today in yellow. Note the 1-1.5 totals along and west of I-27/287 in the city of Amarillo! See...sometimes storms do NOT split and go around our fair city! If you are getting ready to head out the door to work or school, grab that coat! The wind chill values are in the 30s and 40s throughout the area right now and will only warm into the 40s and 50s this afternoon. Skies will clear out by noon and by 5pm, the entire area will have sunny skies; however, the strong winds will continue all day long and will blow from the north and northwest at 20-30 mph with some gusts to 40-50 mph possible...to the 15-25 mph average range with some gusts to 35-40 mph possible around 5pm. Ive included the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Model) for 3pm CDT this afternoon. Ive added some hand-drawn features to the graphic to point out the areas where we are concerned for severe weather...and what type of severe weather is expected. Note that with these storms systems, on the backside of the storm, we have a cold rain (Oklahoma). The solid line of storms will produce strong and damaging wind gusts (Arkansas and Louisiana) while ahead of the line of storms, we could see isolated tornadoes over Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee. The NAM (North American Model) also agrees with the HRRR model around 5pm CDT. Tonight, skies will be clear, winds will settle down to the 5-15 mph range and shift to the west. All of these factors, combined with dry air in place, will cause low temperatures to drop down to the 30s and 40s over the entire area. If you live in a low-lying area and away from the cities, you might see some frost on top of cars, roofs and perhaps, some trees and plants! You might want to bring in those temperature-sensitive plants just in case tonight before you head to bed. Tuesday will be a MUCH nicer day than today with light winds from the west and northwest at 5-15 mph, sunny skies and high temperatures right at seasonal averages in the lower to mid 70s by late day. While you would never take your lunch outdoors today because of the strong winds blowing your napkins to Oklahoma....you can have your lunch outdoors tomorrow as your napkins will stay in place with light winds! Wednesday will also be a very nice and warm day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures rising into the lower to mid 80s and light west and southwest winds at 5-15 mph expected...enjoy! Another cold front is headed this way and will blow through Thursday afternoon dropping our highs back a few degrees to around 80 degrees and switching our wind direction from the southwest at 10-20 mph in the morning to the northeast at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy. TGI Friday will be slightly cooler, but still fairly wind-less with northeasterly winds at 5-15 mph shifting to the east at 5-15 mph in the afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny and our high temperatures will rise into the 70s throughout the area by late day. The Friday night high school football games will be played under ideal conditions with kickoff temperatures around 65-70 degrees...and 4th quarter temperatures in the 60s. Winds will be light easterly at 5-15 mph as well. Next weekend? Looks pretty good with Saturday being the nicest day with perhaps, a few more clouds than what we have seen for most of the week. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will blow from the south at 5-15 mph. Sunday will see an increase in cloud cover and as it looks now, an increase in shower and t-storm chances by the afternoon hours. The rain chances look slight, but if the European, GFS (American Model or the Global Forecast System) and the Canadian computer models are all showing a chance of rain starting as early as Sunday afternoon according to the Canadian, Monday morning according to the European and....no rain according to the GFS. So, thats 2 out of 3 models showing a chance of rain and that has prompted me to add at least a slight chance of rain to the forecast for Sunday afternoon through Monday. High temperatures will drop from the mid 70s to the lower 80s on Sunday...to the 50s and 60s on Monday! At least, it wont be as windy as what we are seeing this morning...for next Monday.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 10:52:52 +0000