Good Morning, The warmth we had anticipated yesterday pretty much lived up to our expectations… Several weeks from now, this kind of warm weather may have some lasting power… But for many of us, a much cooler transition will be getting underway today… As we stated yesterday, this cooling will occur the very abruptly in southeastern New England and around the Greater New York City Metropolitan Area… But, it is going to take a little longer in extreme South Jersey, as well as in Maryland, Delaware and even in southeastern Pennsylvania… We must watch the radar closely early this morning, because a cluster of showers with embedded heavier thunderstorms in western Pennsylvania continues to creep to the south and east as of this writing… Many temperatures in the mid-Atlantic region today will depend upon how many clouds (initially, high cirrus) this complex of showers and thunderstorms will generate, and how much rain it will be producing… The rapid refresh model is showing the intense rain west of the Appalachians eventually dying out this morning, but until we ACTUALLY SEE IT HAPPEN, we should be mindful that it could be a problem later this morning… Therefore, cities such as Philadelphia, Wilmington and Baltimore could make a run at 80 degrees during midday before the temperature starts to fall this later this afternoon… Conversely, it will probably be no higher than the 60s in New York and the 50s in Boston during the morning rush, with temperatures steadily falling this afternoon… There isn’t going to be any substantial rain associated with the cooling in the Northeast, but we’re going to have to watch portions of the mid-Atlantic states closely, especially this afternoon and this evening… A zone where that back door front will be pressing southwestward, especially in south-central Pennsylvania, Maryland and in Delaware, will probably be an ‘active zone’, because of the air converging on this general area, not to mention it’ll be where “very warm air meets much cooler air”… High pressure located off of the mid-Atlantic coast is going to loosen its grip on the Eastern Region, while another ridge of high pressure in eastern Canada will be ushering in the much cooler air… The temperature tomorrow is going to be no higher than the 60s across most of the Northeast… Although there should be an easterly flow, plenty of clouds and even a touch of rain, it appears it won’t be quite as cool as previously thought… For example, both New York City and Boston are probably closer to 65 Wednesday afternoon and not struggling to barely reach 60… Areas located farther to the south and west (just like yesterday and, to some extent, today) should be no lower than the 70s tomorrow afternoon… Our biggest worries late this week will involve a round of rain that will have the potential to cause some flooding… We pointed out yesterday that the upper level wind flow pattern is going to feature a trough in the Eastern Region late in the week… Some unseasonably cool air will be pouring in the Midwest and areas surrounding the Great Lakes tonight, tomorrow and on Thursday… That trough will have an axis which will become negatively-tilted, and that would support the idea that a wave of low pressure is going to get spun up along the leading edge of this much cooler air… So, in the mid-Atlantic region later on Thursday and Thursday night then the Northeast on Friday, rain could bring some of us a general 1-2 inches during a 12-hour period before tapering off later in the day, or even on Friday night in some places… On Saturday, much of New York and New England will probably be prone to getting a couple of showers and a thunderstorm or two… That is because once this aforementioned upper-level trough begins to pivot to the north and east, whoever is beneath the core of the coldest air aloft will also be susceptible to some shower/thunderstorm activity…. Farther south and west, we’re hopeful that there will be a drier trend unfolding, even though the day may not be sunny from start to finish… Most temperatures Saturday will be in the 60s in the coolest spots and the 70s elsewhere (near or even slightly below normal for mid-May), and Sunday should be no less than partly sunny… Have a good day!!!
Posted on: Tue, 13 May 2014 09:36:39 +0000
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