Good Morning, Today wont be as hectic as yesterday was, but this doesnt guarantee that all areas will be problem-free, especially this morning… In the wake of yesterdays snow and ice which occurred, some melting and re-freezing during the night has led to slick spots… Weve noticed that some clouds and a brisk wind out of the northwest has managed to keep the temperature from plummeting into the teens in all but the very coldest spots… However, being solidly in the 20s is still enough to solidify some of the slush on the ground, and cause wet surfaces to become icy… The forecast in the short term will give us relief from precipitation, but afternoon temperatures should still be well below the seasonal averages both today and tomorrow… High pressure spreading out across the Eastern Region will also bring us no less than partial sunshine… We can envision a scenario where clouds persist for a while this morning, but the day will be ending on a much brighter note for most… Whatever snow and ice is still left on the ground from the two previous storms (Monday and Wednesday) will be sticking around for a while -- but there is at least ONE GOOD THING: Solar Winter ended just recently, which is the quarter of the year in the Northern Hemisphere with the least amount of sunlight… It should not be confused with Astronomical Winter, which begins in December with the solstice and ends in March with the vernal equinox… Instead, solar winter begins early in November and ends in February… In a nutshell, while temperatures no higher than 20s are still technically below freezing, the chances of having snow or ice melt while directly in the sun are somewhat greater than they were a few weeks ago… But the late-night and early-morning hours are still going to be ideal for excellent radiational cooling… The sky both tonight and Friday night will be relatively clear, the wind will be light and theres still (in many places, but not all) a decent snow cover… Therefore, many temperatures will wind up in the teens, even the single digits in the coldest locations on both nights… Well be talking quite a bit the next two days about the details upcoming weekend, now that yesterdays event is in the rear view mirror… Having talked briefly about the set-up yesterday, I pointed out that the models now are looking less and less impressive with each passing run… And the impression many folks got about a week ago, especially because of rumors being spread on social media, is that a massive winter storm was headed our way… The reason we simply arent impressed with its potential is because there wont be any phasing of the two branches of the jet stream along the East Coast… Take Sunday mornings surface map for example, which still looks the same on the G.F.S. early this morning as it did yesterday… It has an area of disturbed weather in the Great Lakes region, which really is the direct result of an impulse of upper-level energy… Also, there will be a body of low pressure located in the southern branch of the jet stream, but it is forecasted to move swiftly out into the Atlantic and may be close to Bermuda on Sunday afternoon… With this in mind, it seems more obvious now that the flow pattern will be more zonal, or progressive than it looked earlier… And, Ive used the following analogy: If youre an avid bowler, you can look that these separate lows in Michigan and Bermuda are a lot like a 7 - 10 split (and of course, many of the East Coast cities would be in the middle of the lane)… So, the feature that will be bringing a fresh coating to an inch or two of snow Saturday in Michigan is going to be the rationale for having a period of snow or flurries in our forecasts for most of the Eastern Seaboard Saturday night and Sunday… But, this should be a true monster of an event, especially since the quantitative liquid totals from both the latest G.F.S. and the European are in the 0.05 - 0.15 range… Depending upon the vertical temperature profile when precipitation occurs, that represents anywhere from a fraction of an inch to, at the very most, two or three… This certainly debunks those 20-30 inch rumors that were started about a week ago… Weekend highs will be mostly in the 30s, and were now ruling out snow or sleet on Monday for reasons I just described: A more progressive flow pattern isnt going to allow a feature to linger for very long… High pressure should establish itself in the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast early next week, and well be watching for a possible wave of low pressure emerging in the Southeast during midweek… The consensus now is that NEXT Thursday morning, it will be pushing out to sea after causing rain and mountain snow in the Carolinas… Have a good day!!!
Posted on: Thu, 06 Feb 2014 08:43:07 +0000
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