Good Morning, While today may be April Fools Day, the real joke was played on us YESTERDAY: of course, the early rain managing to flip over to snow in some communities before ending, and Long Island was hit the hardest, by far… In fact, Islips MacArthur Airport had their visibility drop to 1/8 of a mile in heavy snow and thunder yesterday morning -- and the accumulating slush obviously prevented the temperature across much of Suffolk County from getting out of the 40s in the afternoon… That being said, much of the Five Boroughs of New York City and nearby northern New Jersey saw rain only mix with snow briefly… The heaviest snow only took place directly beneath an impulse of upper level energy which caused the convection ---- or, the heaviest pockets of precipitation did set up in Connecticut early yesterday morning and then pushed almost due southward… New Haven wound up with around 3 inches of snow, and the change from rain to snow in Fairfield County took place between 6:30 and 7:00am… After that, as they say, the other dominoes fell… But what I find the most fascinating is that our temperature forecast in the City was actually UNDERDONE by four degrees (it was 56 officially in Central Park and 54 at LaGuardia Airport, and we were calling for a high of 52)… So, this just begs the question: Just how often does a maximum temperature forecast BUST ON THE LOW SIDE during a day which starts out with heavy, wet snowfall which leaves behind a few inches not very far away? Its one of those fickle fates of early springtime forecasting, which can be humbling… Well, lets turn the page, shall we?? The sky early today is starting off relatively clear, and we should see the temperature start off in either the 30s or the lower 40s… The core of a large high pressure system is destined to slide across the Southeast today and tonight, but the axis of the ridge of high pressure will be covering most of the Eastern Seaboard… The wind today will be much lesser than it was yesterday (bearing in mind that there were gusts in excess of 35 mph), and so we should see the temperature begin to climb rather rapidly… But, in one of these kinds of cases, where there is plenty of sunshine and the surface winds are light, were fair game for having a cooling ocean breeze develop this afternoon… So, especially in and near the City, bear in mind that while temperatures should peak in the mid 50s by around 1 or 2 p.m. --- it may be several degrees lower / cooler by the start of the p.m. commute… And, there will be parts of Long Island and the Jersey Shore which will probably never get out of the 40s at all. As we discussed yesterday, we have no reason to believe that a significant and long-lasting warm-up is headed our way over the next 7-10 days… While the temperature should peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s tomorrow, the leading edge of milder air that will be trying to push into the region will generate lots of clouds, as well as a couple of widely separated showers, especially before lunchtime. Beyond tomorrow, it still appears that well be stepping down into a progressively cooler weather pattern which will provide us with additional opportunities to get some rain, especially later on Thursday and Thursday night, and then again on Friday afternoon and night… The timing is still something which can be tweaked as we go along, but a wave of low pressure that we talked about yesterday as one that may track just to the south of Mason-Dixon Line Thursday night is now showing signs of distributing its rain farther north than prior model runs… And then, after an apparent break, there will be another wave of low pressure in the Midwest that will be cutting up to our north and west (through the Great Lakes) on Friday night… Confidence in our office is beginning to build that we can beat the numbers on Friday around here -- because with several parameters indicating that we will have an easterly wind and lots of clouds all day, EVEN IF rain holds off until Friday afternoon -- the temperature will probably fail to get out of the 40s, and it wont be in the low or mid 50s… While there is still a concern that there may be a leftover shower early on Saturday, we expect the wind to shift to the west and southwest during the afternoon… Temperatures should return to the 50s this weekend (after the chillier day on Friday) with clouds and some sunshine… Have a good day!!
Posted on: Tue, 01 Apr 2014 09:31:39 +0000
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