Good Tuesday morning! Well, hopefully you got rained upon yesterday and last night and if you didnt....dont worry! We have good rain chances today and especially tonight...then a REAL GOOD chance of rain for Wednesday night and early Thursday as the grand finale of this big rain event comes to an end. On our Ashley Furniture SchoolNet network, we had 3 sites accumulate at least 2 inches of rain and one of them, nearly 3 inches! Our sites at Middlewell Methodist Church and the Talon Point Retreat measured 2.07 and 2.12 respectively. Both are located between Channing (who also got over an inch of rain!) and Dumas (who got less than .10). The High Plains Retreat Center SchoolNet site, located 7 miles northwest of Canyon, measured 2.96 of rain! I measured .97 of rain in 37 minutes! We can expect a slightly cooler day today thanks to the increased cloud cover, rain chances and a cold front that is moving east to west across the area this morning. It wont be raining ALL day long, but we will have rain chances ALL day as high temperatures only warm to 77 degrees in Guymon and Perryton to 89 degrees in Childress. Winds will blow from the east this morning at 5-15 mph, then shift to the southeast this afternoon at the same average speed. Like previous days, we may see some strong and gusty winds both in and near the t-storms! I have the computer model data split up into two parts. The European and Canadian models are showing what they think the radar will look like tonight. One interesting thing is that both models have better rain chances for Eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandles and not much rain for the eastern and northeastern TX and eastern OK Panhandles. We will see if that forecast pans out. The NAM and GFS are showing the LARGE complex of t-storms expected for Wednesday night and early Thursday morning! Look at all that rain! Rainfall amounts tonight will vary from 1-2 and we could see widespread, 1-2 rainfall totals Wednesday night with isolated, heavier totals in the 2-4 range possible! There might be some severe weather with Wednesday night and early Thursdays MCS, or Mesoscale Convective System, with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. Of course, flooding will also be a possibility that we will watch closely. An unusually strong cold front will blow through the area Wednesday night shifting our winds around to the east and northeast for Thursday with a high temperature roughly 20-25 degrees BELOW the 30-year average high for the day of 92 degrees! We could see high temperatures in the 60s over the eastern and northeastern High Plains to lower and mid 70s elsewhere. Amazing! Rain will continue to fall Thursday morning, but sinking air aloft moving in behind the large, upper-level storm system that kicked off Wednesday nights storms will clear skies out by Thursday afternoon. TGI Friday will be sunnier and warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80s as winds swing around from the east in the morning to the southeast in the afternoon at 5-15 mph. Saturdays forecast has changed...a little. The computer models are indicating that we could see a few, isolated afternoon and evening showers and t-storms. It wont amount to much, but we could see average rainfall totals from .10 to .33 of an inch. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to the lower 90s as winds begin the day light southerly at 5-15 mph, then increasing to the 15-25 mph range with some higher gusts possible by the afternoon. It does look like it will dry out and warm up Sunday through Monday with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon hours as southerly breezes in the 15-25 mph range with some gusts upward of 35-40 mph will be possible. During the mornings on both days, 10-20 mph southerly winds are expected. Skies both days will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy. On Tuesday, it appears that the slight rain chance will return with a few, isolated afternoon and evening t-storms possible! We will need the rain to cool us off as high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees possible! Winds will blow from the south and southwest at 10-20 mph during the day on Tuesday. Thats a look at this Tuesdays weather! Enjoy the rain and cooler weather and have a great day!
Posted on: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 10:42:19 +0000
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