Good afternoon! Improving weather underway - we lost most of the autumn storms rainfall but we havent completely shook the clouds. There have been peeks of sun, allowing area temps to reach the lower 60s this afternoon. Hang on, clearing gets underway later tonight and a sunny end to the work week is on the way. Winter weather outlook issued today from NWS. Trends and conditions currently in the Pacific ocean are weighted heavily on the 3 month forecast. A suite off long range models are an important input to these outlooks. Larger scale weather events like El Nino of La Nina influence the upper air flows. MAIN FACTORS include: El Nino, La Nina, trends, climate variability in seasons, NAO (blocking in the north Atlantic), dry or wet soils. The list goes on. All these factors are included in the forecast. A equal chance for above or below normal temperatures are forecast here along with a better chance of below normal precipitation. These forecasts are used as a guide and not carved in stone. Last winter the FOX59 weather team forecast above normal snow and the first sub zero temps in years. How did that Boy were we on the mark, but never envisioned the 3rd snowiest winter on record! From the Fox59 weather center the long range forecasts are usually bet sampled at 2.5 week intervals, sensible weather trends are more identifiable in this time frame. A quick look ahead for our winter - less snow than last year and not as much brutal cold. This is a fairly easy call, given that last winter was one of the snowiest ever and we are not likely to top those numbers. Only time will tell and remember only takes one storm to make it a bad winter. As always stay tuned!
Posted on: Thu, 16 Oct 2014 23:03:31 +0000
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