Good evening Delmarva. Just wanted to post a small update about the storm system I talked about the other day. I had mentioned the possibility of severe weather for our area and some of the other impacts to our area. First picture shows our storm located just east of the four corners and western Texas. The storm will start to energise itself again as it runs into the ridge to the east and as gulf moisture feeds into the storm from the south. By tomorrow afternoon the beast should look pretty impressive on radar. As of now I feel safe saying we should be on the safe side as far as severe weather is concerned. The axis of the trough appears to be placing the severe weather in areas of South Carolina and south. Could that change? Yes, but I still dont think well have the main severe weather threat to contend with. At worst we could see very gusty winds in storms. As for my forecast. As it looks as of today 10-12 @ 8pm. The front should be in our area between 7 pm Wednesday 10-15 & 3 am 10-16 Thursday morning. Timing of the arrival is a little tricky as the long term mods ( GFS, NAM, & EURO) are not in agreement. The Euro has the slowest timing and the GFS with the fastest. The NAM is kind of in the middle, thus the wide window of timing. I still expect to see rain and or showers with the possibility of embedded thunderstorms if instability allows during the frontal passage. Winds will pickup just before the passage as well from the south. Winds will slowly turn west then northwest after the frontal passage. With this storm deepening so fast a very deep southern flow will develop ahead of the front being compressed below the warm front. Basically we will have above normal temperatures at least during the nights. Daytime temperatures will depend on the strength of the high pressure or ridge over New England. The more control the ridge has over our area the clearer our skies will be. Less control of the ridge will yield cloudier skies as a couple of weak troughs will be in the area like the backdoor cold front that pushed through our area lastnight into today. Well as you can see there is a lot going on. Our atmosphere is very active right now due to the changing of the seasons and trying to balance its temperatures. Ive seen some reports of snow packs in Siberia that are pretty impressive. Now youre probably wondering why I even mentioned the snow in Siberia. Well it kind of has a strong behavior on our winter believe it or not. And well with the current special weather numbers of averages and comparing them to past winters. Well we COULD be in for a very snowy winter....... 1977-78 1957-58 1992-93 Yeah those years if you remeber those storms youve seen some of the deepest snows in our area. NOTHING IS SET IN STONE! Im not saying that anything like that is going to happen. Im just looking at the numbers. We have over 2 months before winter a lot can change. Back to topic.... Storms impact looks to be Wed night into Thu morning. Rain and winds will be the significant threats. Small possibility of embedded thunderstorms. Well have more information as the storm becomes better organized and the models can get a better handle of its parameters. Enjoy DW
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 01:06:46 +0000
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