Good evening, everyone! The pattern that will be setting up next week will be one that favors long-term cold. Since I have been following the weather, I dont think I ever remember a pattern like this setting up in November, although thats not to say that it hasnt happened before. It just hasnt happened in a really long time. What is occurring right now is setting the stages for a really cold winter. Basically, all of this is likely a preview of what is to come later this winter. I realize that many of you have seen all of the hyped-up and exaggerated forecasts year after year that have never come true. It automatically makes one assume (including myself) that the same thing is going to happen the next year. Folks, this year is no hype. From everything that I see, this winter could end up being one that we simply are not prepared for. Yes, I could be wrong, but everything that I have been saying could happen since this summer is all coming together. One little variable could throw off my entire winter forecast but I would say that is becoming very unlikely at this point. The cold that is coming next week will be severe, but remember, its still only November so its not going to be as bad as if it were January or February. Still, the temperatures will be well below average. The only thing that I have noticed on the models is that temperatures try to moderate some along the East Coast after the first Arctic blast, but the cold is later reinforced over the area. This may be because the waters are still very warm along the East Coast and the Gulf. With this type of pattern, the cold will just keep pushing into the U.S. Many of you have asked me about the potential of snow. Model guidance has consistently been predicting a snowstorm over the Southern Plains next weekend. Given the model consistency and the type of pattern that well be in, its something that I cant totally disregard and will have to continue to keep a close watch on. Also, a system will be bringing wintry weather across the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest,. Winter storm watches and warnings have already been issued for those areas. It is POSSIBLE that there could be a big storm system affect the United States around Thanksgiving. It is something that has not shown up on the forecast models yet, but its something that I am keeping a very close watch on. When were this far out, its difficult to give specifics, but I am able to usually pick up on the general timeframe on when a big storm could occur. Ill be waiting to see if this begins to show up on models in a week or so and will keep you all in the loop. Again, everything is coming together for this to be a big winter. If anything changes, Ill definitely let you know. This is a very active pattern that is currently setting up, and I will be the first to admit that forecasting errors may be made on my end due to the complexity of how everything is coming together. I always try to make everyone aware of my limitations as a weather forecaster and explain when I am not as confident in a particular forecast. One thing is for sure, Im becoming more and more confident that the 2014-15 winter will be one to remember. -Matthew
Posted on: Sun, 09 Nov 2014 03:06:58 +0000
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