Good morning and happy Saturday! High pressure will slide off to the east today allowing for a cold front to approach the area later tonight into Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon and evening, and we can expect some light rain showers to move into the area early Sunday morning. The cold front will move through by Sunday afternoon and will stall out just to our south, keeping the chance for showers into Sunday night. Strong high pressure from Canada will usher in some very cold air into the western United States and eventually making its way to the east coast, though it will have moderated some by the time it arrives this far east. Either way, temps will be on the way down, down, down through the new year. For temperatures, highs today will reach the low to mid 50s. With the increased cloud cover, we remain insulated overnight, and lows only dip into the upper 30s to low 40s, with mid 40s around NYC. Sunday will warm up to around 50° before the cold front pushes through, then temps slowly drop throughout the day. Looking ahead at our next close call, a wave of low pressure will ride along the stationary front that will be just to the south of Long Island late Monday into Tuesday. While the most probable outcome is high pressure to our north suppressing the system to our south, there is the possibility we could see a little snowflake action from the northwest quadrant. And by a little, I mean very little if any, so dont go getting your hopes up. Well stay in a cold pattern through around January 4 ish, where models indicated an inland storm (wed be on the warm side, perhaps very warm like the Christmas Eve system) could bring in a warmer weather pattern into January. The CFS V2 climate model strongly hints at a warmer than normal month of January. Specifically, honing in on a dominant upper level low over Greenland, strong high pressure over the central northern Atlantic, and strong convergence of the polar jet and subtropical jet. This pattern would keep temperatures significantly above normal for January, and keep whatever storm systems that develop warm enough for rain for us, as a strong Atlantic ridge would keep systems further inland, taking a track over the Great Lakes. Please take the long range with a huge grain of salt. After all, if you go back several weeks and months, the outlook called for a pretty brutal winter. Best advice is just take it one day at a time. Ive included: 1) The GFS surface pressure and precipitation type for 7am Tuesday showing just how close, yet zero impact for Long Island. 2) The CMC (Canadian), which tracks the system slightly further north, keeping us close enough for a dusting of snow. This model has been trending the system further and further south with each run. 3) CFS V2 500mb geopotential height anomaly for the month of January. 4) CFS V2 temperature departure from normal for January 10-20 (January Thaw)
Posted on: Sat, 27 Dec 2014 12:30:00 +0000
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