HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 507 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000- ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK- CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK- LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK- OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK- PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK- WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR- 507 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...AFTERNOON...INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...SPREADING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY. ONSET...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DISCUSSION... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME... HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIMFRAME. DRY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT WEEK. WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 500 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191700- HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE- ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM- WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND- POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN- COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON- CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER- WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY- 500 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION... A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK. GUSTY WINDS....SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 20. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS UNLIKELY BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON TODAY. $$ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 500 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000- ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND- CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE- PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE- WOODRUFF-YELL- 500 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR TODAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WILDFIRE DANGER REMAINS IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE AT THIS TIME. BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MANY COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BECAUSE OF THESE DRY CONDITIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS. A FEW STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS COULD SEE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE STATE. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MID SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. $$ 44 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 425 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-200930- RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE- RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER- SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE- 425 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF BOTH HALF DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL AND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING BUT WOULD BE NEITHER STRONG NOR SEVERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND 50 MPH GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP $$ ES -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 407 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200915- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 407 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK. SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK. LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK. DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 90S WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. OTHERWISE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)
Posted on: Thu, 19 Sep 2013 11:24:19 +0000
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