Hello everyone, I am going to keep this post just to Colorado until I see how this next system is going to affect our area. Also I am watching an even stronger storm system for mid week. The second system will be colder. As with system 1, Id like to have 24 more hours of model runs before I talk about areas outside of Colorado. System 1 is not going to be quite as cool as system 2, but both will bring a dramatic change just because we have been so warm. As I will detail in system two, although colder, this will not be ground-breaking cold for this time of year. What both systems will do is serve as a reminder that we have transitioned over into the Fall season. Todays high temp of 87 in Lyons certainly belied the recent change over to the new season. I would venture to guess that we have seen our last near 90 until next spring. After a very warm last few days, much cooler air will be filtering into Colorado. Sunday will be cooler than today but will still be a few degrees above normal. Its Monday when you all will feel a noticeable change. First off lets talk about Sunday. Clouds should be on the increase, and I am going to go with a 20 to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. This chance of rain is for the entire forecast area. In fact all of the rain chances Ill be talking about in this post will cover the entire forecast area which is the Foothills (Estes, Ned and Pinewood included), and the Front Range (including Lyons to Denver and then north to the Wyoming border and all adjacent towns to this line, for example, Boulder, Longmont, Fort Collins, etc. If your town is near to or adjacent within 10 miles or so to the line from Denver Metro to Wyoming, your town is included as well.) These rain chances will start going up after midnight on Sunday, with rain becoming likely in all areas by Monday morning, extending into Tuesday morning. I may be extending the rain chances a bit too long, but I am hesitant right now to cut those chances off Monday night. Based on some of the model runs, there is a chance Tuesday could see some more precipitation. I will be amending the precipitation time frame as I go through the next sets of Model runs. The three Model maps (all from the 12Z runs) I have uploaded cut off on Tuesday at 6pm. Map 1 is the GFS computer model, Map 2 is the NAM computer model, and Map 3 is the WPC 3 day run. They are very close in their QPF (total liquid output). I am going to stretch out here and call for a general .5 to 1 inch of rain through Tuesday midday. I think there may be a few areas that go above this total, and I also think a few locations may see closer to .25. Generally though, based on my analysis, .5 to 1 is a good fit for the entire forecast area. Although I am not showing maps beyond Tuesday in this post, a general consensus in the computer models for the second system, Wednesday into Thursday, shows a general .25 to .5 across the entire forecast area. Ill work on those totals over the next day or so. Again that system looks even colder. Ill talk about that in my next paragraph. Lets talk temperatures now. As mentioned Sunday will see the temps come down from today, but they will still be a few degrees above normal. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s to low 70s in the Foothills and in the upper 70s along the Front Range, extending through Denver Metro. Those highs will drop to the 60s on Monday along the Front Range and Denver Metro, and in the 50s in the Foothills. Look for these same readings on the Tuesday in the above mentioned areas. Now on Wednesday here is where I deviate, at least for now, compared to other forecasts I have seen. I am at this time basing it on the CMC (Canadian Model). Its been fairly consistent with its forecast highs. I may change this as I go through the next couple of model runs, but for now I am going with 40s to low 50s along the Front Range and Denver Metro on Wednesday and in the upper 30s to mid 40s in the Foothills. Thursday will see a few degrees moderation in all areas. If the CMC Model verifies, there could be snows falling in the Foothill locations above 8,000 feet. I will be working more on the midweek forecast, as I am not sold on the snow at this time. I should mention the GFS model is about 10 degrees or so warmer than the CMC on Wednesday so Id like to see the GMC and other models come around to the CMC solution before I am sold on it. I am going with it right now due to the consistent runs Ihave been seeing over the last 2 to 3 days. Sorry for the length of this post, but there was a lot to talk about, and I wanted to get you all caught up on the big changes headed our way. For you folks in the rest of the country, bear with me. As soon as I see how these systems progress over the next 24 hours or so, Ill begin talking about what is going to happen beyond Colorado over the upcoming week.
Posted on: Sun, 28 Sep 2014 04:12:48 +0000
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