Hello everyone, time to talk about the weekend outlook. Big changes are going to take place across parts of the country, including right here in Colorado. A cold front is going to wipe out these July-like temps and bring us back to where we should be this time of year. I will start off talking about Colorado weather and then branch off to the rest of the U.S. COLORADO WEATHER --------------------------------- We have been experiencing very warm temperatures for this time of year over the last few days. Just one week ago here in Lyons, our high was in the upper 30s. Today we are pushing 90. That is not acceptable for this time of year, and for me personally, I am ready to see the heat take a hike. And that is exactly whats going to happen this weekend. Highs will drop back to the 70s on Saturday, along the Front Range (including Lyons to Boulder, stretching through Denver Metro and then north to the Wyoming border, including Longmont, Fort Collins and Greeley and all adjacent towns to this line, and in the 60s in the Foothills (Estes, Pinewood Springs, Nederland). Based on how the precipitation pattern sets up on Sunday, all areas could drop another 10 degrees. Sunday has the makings of being a rainy, cool day. Here is the breakdown as far as moisture. First off for Saturday, I am calling for increasing rain chances through the afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms could mix in with the rain showers. Taking a look at the first map, the WPC 3 day outlook, it is showing liquid totals of .5 to .75 across much of the forecast area, with areas closer to Denver Metro possibly seeing in excess of an inch, based on this model output. The SREF computer model is in the .5 to 1 inch range across the entire forecast area, with the GFS and NAM models showing around .5. Based on other model output and the ones I have mentioned, I am going to call for .5 to 1 inch across the entire forecast area, with some areas seeing between 1 and 2 inches. The best chance of rain will be late Saturday night into Tuesday. The moisture is more tropical in nature so even though a cold front will be joining the party, the snow level should remain quite high, not lowering below 10 to 11 thousand feet. For the most part, this system is all about the liquid moisture and the much cooler temps. Ill continue to monitor this system to see if more moisture is able to scoot in from the south. If you look at map 1, it shows the heaviest rains staying in NM and TX. Just a couple of model runs ago, it looked like more of that moisture would make it to Colorado. And there is an outside chance it still could, but none of the computer models are pointing towards that at this time. One other thing I want to bring up is the long range outlook. For several model runs, the GFS computer model has been insisting on a load of moisture making into Colorado from roughly Sept 26 to Oct 5. Although the GFS backed down slightly from last nights run, it is still showing a plethora of moisture headed this way. Last nights run was yielding 3 to 4 inches of rain along the Front Range and in the Foothills. If you look at Map number 2, the GFS 384 hour outlook, it shows 2 to 3 inches along the Front Range and in the Foothills and up to 5 inches right along the eastern CO border (much of this moisture would fall in above mentioned range). This moisture bomb is due to a dying Hurricane, monsoon moisture (which has no business being this strong this time of year) and a cold front. Well see how this plays out, but this particular model has been adamant about the big rain totals. The other computer models do not agree at this time. And again, as a reminder, 1 year ago this very GFS model was the only Model to nail the flood. And it refused to waver from its stance in over a week of model runs. I dont need all of the Models to verify if one Model is going to be very consistent. Dont pull out the Ark just yet, but this is something Ill be watching very closely. WEATHER AROUND THE U.S. ------------------------------------------ For the rest of you folks who have been basking in late summer heat, you all will see changes as well. Map number 3 is the high map for Saturday and Sunday. Check all the 70s around the country (in green). And in the Great Lakes region, highs will be in the 50s in the upper Lakes area. The hot air is definitely shrinking as we get further into Sept. Unfortunately for you folks in the south and southwest, Summer will hang on this weekend like a bad dream. For my family and friends down in the Hempstead/Waller County area, extending through the Houston area, highs will boil into the 90s. Same goes through Dixie. Parts of the Desert Southwest will be in the low 100s. Ouch! Thats just too darn hot for this time of year. Those areas seeing moisture will get some relief from the heat. You folks in NM and west TX, extending through the TX Panhandle could see some big rain totals. Map number 1 is showing over 4 inches in parts of Texas and up to 3 in parts of NM. A few areas in UT and NV could see some nice rain totals. The other areas where some big totals could fall are in the Great Lakes area where the coldest temps will be and in the NE. If you are in the light blue to purple shadings, we are talking about 1 to 2.5 inches of rain. Just as I talked about for Colorado, I am not seeing enough cold air for snow at this time for the Great Lake and the NE. A month from now, this would be a major snow storm for some of these areas. SUMMARY --------------- As always, I will continue to monitor the short and long range weather patterns and pass along updates to Weather Talk. I thank you all for being a part of Weather Talk. Always love reading your input and feedback. Hope everyone has a wonderful weekend! :-)
Posted on: Fri, 19 Sep 2014 20:51:52 +0000
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