Here is a situation I came across in a $1-2 nlh game. I am the opener. I limp. A gal to my left, who I am friends with and came that day to play with, raises to $7.00. The button makes it $22.00. I drop. The original raising gal pops it to $122.00. Button flat calls. The flop now is KQ10 rainbow. The gal checks. The button moves all in. Gal snap calls with what is about $80.00 that she has left. I questioned her about the call. And myself. She stated I am not laying down my aces. He could of had aces also. I gave the hand some thought. She faced a solid player (ie no maniac play here) that I would put on four, possibly five hands: AA KK QQ AK (JJ) What would be the most likely hands? ·Since she had aces that leaves one pair of aces. ·Since a K hit the flop, that leaves 3 Ks available for three pocket pairs of kings. ·Same for the situation prevails for the Queens as with the Kings. Three pocket pairs of Queens. ·Now for the AK. There are two aces left and 3 kings. This is known from the Gals point of view. That gives 6 possible ace kings. THIS IS THE ONLY HAND SHE COULD BEAT. So by the above reasoning we have the following: KINGS 3x more likely than ACES QUEENS 3x more likely than ACES AK 6x more likely than ACES. HER REASONING WAS WRONG TO THINK THE MOST LIKE SITUATION WAS THAT HE HAD ACES. Off the top of my head I told her she should not have called. Was I right? Lets find out. She had six outs to win. Two ACES (to make three ACES) and four JACKS (to make the gut shot straight). The probability of making the six outer with two running cards is: 3.15 against. The ROI is all the money in the pot facing the Gals $80.00 call: Pre flop money: $122.00 x 2 plus $5.00 (blinds plus my $2.00 call) = $249.00 After flop money facing the Gal: $80.00 (her money in front if her; she was covered) + $249.00 = $329.00. Hence ROI is: $329.00/$80.00. = 4.11. The investment odds are thus: 4.11(ROI money)/3.15(prob. of making the hand) = 1.30. THE CORRECT ACTION WAS TO CALL.
Posted on: Wed, 12 Nov 2014 20:05:44 +0000
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