Hong Kong’s population is ageing. Everyone should be no stranger to this problem but little of them know how serious it is to the development in various aspects of Hong Kong. Ageing population is the most serious public management challenge in many developed cities, including Hong Kong. Some may overlook this problem but its seriousness can be justified through statistics, experience of other cities, and the drawbacks it is causing both economically and socially. According to projections by the Census and Statistics Department, in 2012, the number of elderly people aged 65 or above in Hong Kong was representing nearly 14 percent of the population, meaning that one out of eight Hong Kong residents is an elderly. In 20 years of time, one in every four people in Hong Kong will be 65 or above. The ageing population is forecasted to rise significantly in the coming years while the percentage of working age (15-64) population keeps decreasing. As such, it is projected that Hong Kong has to deal with the financial burden brought by the elderly, the constant decline in labour force and the low birth rate in younger generations. The most direct impact brought by ageing population is the loss of working force. This trend will definitely slow down Hong Kong’s economic growth and lead to heavier burden. Based on the elderly dependency ratio, ten people of working age supported one dependent elderly financially in the early 1980s. But now, the ratio has dropped to five people of working age supporting one dependent elderly. It is estimated that by 2040, the ratio will immensely drop to two working people supporting one elderly. The trend of ageing population is unbelievable and cannot be tolerated, meaning that the government not only has to deal with the increasing expenditure on elderly, but also seek solutions to prevent this trend from threatening Hong Kong’s economy. Worst still, the family structure is thus changing that there will be more elderly members than younger members in a family. While the younger generation can barely make ends meet due to severe inflation, high cost of education and housing price, taking care of more elderly will further increase their financial burden. The offspring of the old generation has to deal with such problems resulting more singlehood, late marriages and families not having children. A vicious cycle is formed, making no good but harm to the whole society. Ageing population is also causing headache to the Hong Kong government because of the soaring expenditure on welfare and healthcare of the elderly. According to the government, in 2012, the total health expenditure was over $43billion which accounted for 16 percent of recurrent government expenditure. It is estimated that by 2030, the total health expenditure will reach $130billion. Especially most elderly suffer from chronic diseases which need long-term medication. Moreover, more patient beds in hospitals and elderly care centres are demanded in the coming years to serve the surging needs of elderly. Socially, many elderly are under poverty that most of them rely on the government financially. To take care of those vulnerable old people, more welfares of increasing their quality of life will be implemented. All these measures need an immense amount of cost meanwhile, given that the decreasing labour force also indicates the decreasing government revenue. On the economic aspects, as the post-war Baby Boomers turned 65 and getting retired, more and more job vacancies are created. Nevertheless, those vacancies are too many that not enough working power can fill them in, especially there are fewer successors in some specialties and unfavourable occupations, such as the construction industry. Importing foreign workers through Quality Migrant Admission Scheme that attracts overseas professionals and talents can ease the problem a little bit but it is not reliable in the long run. Instead, more resources should be allocated in nurturing younger generations to be capable in various specialties as to fill in those job vacancies as well as raising the financial conditions of the younger generation. In addition to the impact of ageing population on Hong Kong’s economy, as there are increasing numbers of elderly and fewer people at working age, it represents a weaker consuming power that makes the economy of Hong Kong less vibrant. With fewer labour force, this trend is definitely threatening the economic growth and some multinational companies may not be interested in investing and setting up operations in Hong Kong. Some larger local companies may no longer targeting Hong Kong customers but to relocate their business overseas, making great influence to Hong Kong. In short, ageing population intertwines with various economic and social problems and it is the most serious public management challenge in Hong Kong. More should be done to tackle the root of the problem now otherwise it will be a great threaten to Hong Kong. (5024)
Posted on: Wed, 12 Mar 2014 15:55:13 +0000
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