How might the killing in Gaza end? Not, I fear, with any real solution. The most fundamental solution, of course, would be peace negotiations that result in a broadly-accepted agreement, the end of the occupation, and Palestinian self-determination in an independent state. Certainly peace would not bring with it an end to all violence, but it would cut off much of the oxygen that allows violence to thrive. But there is no prospect whatsoever for successful negotiations at this time, partly because of Palestinian weakness, more so because a lack of strong international leadership and pressure, and most of all because the current Israeli government will not abandon its current maximalist positions. Hamas itself remains a significant obstacle to any future peace process. Certainly, the organization contains those who would be willing to accept a two state solution to the conflict. It also contains many who dont. Its use of violence only hardens Israeli views and strengthens the Israeli right wing. Hamas is stuck in much the same place Fateh was c1972 or so, and shows no signs of moderating at a rapid enough pace (remembering that Fateh itself took two decades to evolve its position, suffering a split in the PLO and its own internal civil war in the process.) Hamas has also wounded, perhaps fatally so, the reconciliation process—ironically, at a time when the US had clearly signalled it might be willing to see the cautious, arms-length reintegration of a moderating Hamas back into the PA political process. A formal and detailed ceasefire is unlikely. Israel and Egypt will not give up their economic and humanitarian stranglehold on Gaza, a key Hamas demand. Israel will not under any circumstances refrain from surveillance overflights. The occasional rocket will still come out of Gaza, fired by groups beyond Hamas direct control. I doubt too that Israel and Hamas are willing to negotiate a very detailed understanding, which would require far more recognition, interaction, and specificity than either is willing to accept. Instead were likely to eventually go back--after much bloodshed, perhaps even a ground invasion--to the sort of messy, awkward arrangement that was the November 2012 ceasefire understanding. It will be yet another stop-gap measure, the contours of which are demarcated by periodic attacks and other measures of deterrence and signalling. Gaza will remain impoverished, its human potential deliberately stunted, reliant on UN food aid to prevent actual starvation. And it will all break down again, in a few months or years. In the meantime, the occupation of the West Bank will continue to deepen, through illegal settlement and other Israeli actions--fuelling Palestinian desperation, undermining moderates, and making real peace negotiations even more difficult.
Posted on: Sun, 13 Jul 2014 21:14:40 +0000