I copied this from the National Weather Service in Huntvilles website. They posted this today. Kim Bellomy Rice, Chanda Irvin Bartlett, David Bartlett, Ron Hammon. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND THIS MAY BE THE LAST DAY OF QUIET WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK AS A VERY ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE IS ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW IN FORECASTING A POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACK EASTWARD...EMERGING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THIS OCCURS...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONE`S ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA...WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. IF SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE CAN RETURN TO THE REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW INDEED TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST THE SETUP WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 50-60KT SSW FLOW AT 850 MB BENEATH 70-80KT SW FLOW ALOFT. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION...WITH SNOW FLURRIES A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OF MUCH MORE CONCERN IS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING INLAND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY INDIRECTLY INDUCE ANOTHER GULF CYCLONE...WHICH COULD SPREAD SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND LOW CHANCES OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
Posted on: Fri, 31 Jan 2014 17:05:21 +0000
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