I dont usually do this, but heres a rare view from out on the limb: I predict that this so-called bad year for Democrats will not be all that bad. Two reasons: 1) The pollsters demonstrated in 2012 that they dont really know what they are doing. They continue to measure a world which no longer exists, and which they dont really understand. The more you have to adjust the formulas to compensate for holes in the sampling, the more divorced from reality you become. 2) We hear constantly about how most of the competitive U.S. Senate races involve Democratic seats, and therefore favor the Republicans. What this forgets is that the Republicans are starting from well down in the Senate, and therefore still have to win most of these races in order to flip control. In other words, they practically have to run the table to win, and that is always much harder than it looks. I look for the Republicans to narrow (but not replace) the Democratic majority in the Senate, and in this new world where you need 60 votes anyway, thats no real change. Also look for them to pick up a very small number of seats in the House. On the other hand, we are probably going to see a dramatic sea change towards the Democrats in governorships on Tuesday, and that is the single most significant development, because it heralds a longer term trend. If Hillary runs, she wins in 2016 with coattails in the Senate, and (barring a catastrophic anomaly) serves two terms. More importantly, the trend begun in 2014 in state government picks up steam in 2016, with substantial Democratic gains in state legislatures. After some setbacks in 2018, the Dems come back roaring in 2020, and take over state legislatures nationwide, just in time to draw the new state and federal districts in 2021. At that point, the Republicans will never again be effective as a national party unless and until they embrace the emergent lessons of demographic evolution and generational change. The arc of history is long, but it will not include the Tea Party past a certain point. Or maybe I have it all completely wrong, which would hardly be the first time. Or the last.
Posted on: Sun, 02 Nov 2014 20:04:27 +0000
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