I got tired of waiting for someone else to say this, so I wrote it myself. Email By SUSAN RILEY | Published: Monday, 11/25/2013 12:00 am EST GATINEAU, QUE.—Enjoyable as the recent circus of scandal has been, opposition parties should not count on allegations of corruption to defeat the Harper government in 2015. The economy will trump every other issue, as it almost always does. If things are going well—lots of jobs, rising wages—Stephen Harper could be re-elected. Even if things are going badly, voters may not want to risk a leap into the unknown. So far, that is what the Liberals are offering under Justin Trudeau. Beyond annoying platitudes about helping the middle class, and growing the economy “from the middle out”—whatever than means—Trudeau has been mostly coy. Arguably, his key economic plank so far is his endorsement of the Keystone Pipeline—a project that promises to stimulate tar sands production, add to greenhouse gas emissions, and create more jobs in the U.S. than in Canada. Trudeau makes noises about sustainability, but this first tangible signal of his economic tilt sounds Harper-lite. The NDP are, by every objective measure, more deserving of replacing the Conservatives. They have a smarter, tougher leader; a brace of careful policies that will neither break the bank, nor frighten the bankers (well, except the perpetually-hysterical ones); and a history of running mostly frugal governments at the provincial level. None of which matters, when debate turns to “the economy.” It has become a code word, a pollster’s meaningless question, an occasion for rabid accusations and ridiculous boasts, all signifying nothing. Despite a mountain of contrary evidence, for instance, the “economy” is said to be Stephen Harper’s strong suit. Conservatives are historically considered more prudent, reliable and responsible with public money and no bulging dossier of bungled military procurements, missing billions, fake lakes, or free-spending senators diminishes the myth. That successive New Democrat provincial governments have run surpluses, that Liberal finance minister Paul Martin bolstered Canada’s banks and its pensions—and left Jim Flaherty a sizeable surplus, which he promptly spent—counts for little. What is mere fact in the face of platitude? Here are more facts: the Harper government didn’t see the recession coming, vowed never to run a deficit, then ran a record deficit. It promised to create jobs, fired countless public servants, and idly witnessed nearly-weekly plant closures, from BlackBerry to, last week, a Heinz tomato plant in Leamington, Ont. It rebuffed China as a trading partner, courted China, then rebuffed it again as an oilsands investor. Its job-creating, shipbuilding program has run aground because the government badly under-estimated the cost of all that new navel equipment. Its belligerence about environmental concerns has demonstrably complicated attempts to sell our oil in the United States and Europe. Indeed, its economic vision can be summed up in two words: oil and gas. It has no fallback, now that energy exports are blocked and, with growing U.S. energy self-sufficiency, may never recover. The government’s approach to foreign investment, especially with telecoms, is confusing. As Harper recently told premiers: “I think it would be foolish for the Canadian government to provide absolute clarity on takeovers.” He may be right, but imagine the attack ads if Trudeau made such a remark? Harper likes to boast that Canada leads the G7 in job creation, inflation, debt-to-GDP ratio—that, relatively speaking, we are doing much better than Spain. But that is of limited comfort if you are looking for a job in Sudbury, rather than Madrid. Doesn’t matter, because Harper (and Trudeau) are preoccupied with the middle class, not with students staggering under record debt loads, or jobless Canadians facing further restrictions in an already inadequate EI system, or laid off public servants, or legions of others nervously expecting a pink slip. Never mind the (shudder) poor. Let’s call that the “real economy.” Their concerns won’t figure much in campaign rhetoric. After manufacturing a $3.7-billion (at least) surplus in 2015, for instance, Conservatives plan to offer more tax breaks to people who don’t need them—but who tend to vote. Expect a doubling of the tax-free savings account from the $5,000 yearly limit to $10,000—in case you wondered where to stash that extra cash. There will be income splitting for single-earner families, too, which disproportionately benefit households wealthy enough to afford having one spouse stay home. And that gym membership you were going to buy anyway? Soon you’ll be able to claim it. Even the Conservatives’ Canada Job Strategy is designed to help employers pay for training workers they may already have on staff, rather than train the unemployed. Provinces are expected to contribute by taking $300-million from successful job-training schemes aimed at hard-to-employ Canadians— leaving them, presumably, in another “economy” altogether. It is the economy where most Canadians live. It is increasingly remote from the one politicians talk about. Susan Riley is a veteran political columnist. sriley.work@gmail news@hilltimes The Hill Times More Info
Posted on: Tue, 03 Dec 2013 14:36:16 +0000