In an attempt to reduce ideological and political conflicts with Moslems, BJP national President Rajnath Singh said that BJP Prime Ministerial hopeful and present Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi still felt the pain of 2002 Godhra riots. He stressed that the BJP and its top leadership believed that India could not achieve full potential without the participation of all identities. The talk by Mr. Singh is more likely to confine to the national and regional media and upper circles of elites and such assertion by Mr. Modi himself would not be the game changer; it is not going to go down well with Moslems. The fact is except for the special privileges directed towards the community, Moslems are not going to vote for the BJP. Such privileges can only be offered by the governments and simple empty promises by the BJP wherever it is in opposition would not attract the attention of Moslems. One can easily measure the impact of such promises and actions. But it would still help the BJP in becoming more Centrist as far as Hindus are concerned, particularly in the non-Hindi speaking regions. It can help the BJP improving its performance in the East, the North-East and the South. Moslems as a group would not vote for the BJP but seeking their votes without loosing core votes would still be better option for the BJP. In all likelihood even if there is a swing measuring up to 5% in favor of the BJP, it is not going to get more seats then what it did during Mr. Vajpayee’s last two terms. It would be Herculean task for Mr. Modi and the top leadership of the BJP to add up to simple majority in the Lower House of the Parliament. It would depend on the stand of the Congress Party: if it decides to sit on the fence and not to support the Third Front from the outside, then the NDA would be able to get absolute majority. The Congress Party otherwise could spoil the game-plan of the BJP. In case the BJP and the Congress Party gets almost equal number of seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, then the likelihood of the BJP-led NDA forming the government in New Delhi is minimal and the Third Front forming the government is maximal. But looking at the present trends the BJP would saturate its tally at around 160. The food subsidy bill along with direct cash transfer schemes would control the damage done by the corruption, inflation and misrule to the Congress Party and to the rest of the UPA2 parties.
Posted on: Mon, 02 Sep 2013 07:45:49 +0000
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