In recent days Western policy on Ukraine has seemed to center on a hope that Moscow is seeking an off ramp from the crisis in Crimea. Western leaders are urging a deescalation of the crisis. The Kremlin shows interest in neither. Instead, it has flowed more forces into Crimea, falsely portrayed ethnic Russians in Crimea as under physical threat, blockaded the Ukrainian Navy in Sevastopol, and sped efforts to annex Crimea. An analogy is instructive. The Kremlin carefully planned the invasion of Georgia in August 2008, paving the way with several months of war propaganda aimed at whipping up Russians about a non-existent threat from Georgia. Now, the Kremlin is carrying out what looks like a well-planned seizure of Crimea, abetted by war propaganda that has spread one falsehood after another. Moscow claims an armed mutiny has taken place in Ukraine, yet the rest of the world has seen on its television screens a popular uprising against a corrupt, semi-authoritarian ruler who betrayed his promise to take Ukraine toward Europe. There are times when diplomacy can work, and times when it cannot. No sign emanating from Moscow suggests this is a time for productive negotiation. Russian leaders seem bent on taking quick control of Crimea in order to change the correlation of forces -- to present the world with a fait accompli. Western leaders will likely pursue their own strategy for changing the correlation of forces. They will probably do this by seeking international political isolation of Russia for its actions in Crimea, levying wide-ranging visa bans and sanctions, applying economic leverage, and altering military strategy and operations to reassure allies and deter further aggression. The weak economy in Russia and rising expectations of its people are the Kremlins weakest reeds. Exploiting them is likely to be the Wests principal tool. The Kremlin has over-reached. Russias political opposition has condemned the aggression in Crimea. A public opinion poll by a Russian state-owned firm in early February found that 73% of Russians opposed intervention in Ukraine. In the mid-1970s the West had a tepid reaction to Soviet military intervention in Angola and Ethiopia. Perhaps lulled, the Kremlin in 1979 invaded Afghanistan. The West discerned a pattern of rising aggression, however, and reacted more strongly. It sought to change the correlation of forces by backing the Mujahideen insurgents, and the US eventually provided them with Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. Soviet forces in Afghanistan suffered setbacks. In the middle of the Afghan war political liberalization took place in Moscow, as Mikhail Gorbachev came to power. A few years later the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, and then the USSR collapsed. There may be a few parallels today. The West has had only a tepid reaction to Russias military occupation of separatist areas in Moldova and Georgia for the past twenty-two years. The West’s reaction to the 2008 invasion of Georgia was slightly stronger, but only a half-year later the US began pursuing reset to improve relations with Russia. This time, too, the Kremlin may have been lulled, expecting only a modest reaction to its seizure of Crimea. Instead, the West appears to see a disturbing pattern. The initial Western reaction to Crimea is far stronger than in 2008, suggesting it may also be persistent. As with Afghanistan, the West is likely to set for itself a goal of changing over time the correlation of forces -- until one day Russia alters its strategy in response to external pressures and to internal disillusionment. In contrast to the Afghan war, which became unpopular among the Soviet people because of high casualties, Russias military occupation of Crimea will be less violent. This time public opinion in Russia will be swayed not by casualties, but by the extent to which the Crimea adventure and international reaction end up frustrating Russians’ expectations for a better life and for prestige for their country. How and when disaffection may emerge is uncertain, but at some point it probably will.
Posted on: Sat, 08 Mar 2014 17:36:48 +0000
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