Introduction Much of contemporary economics on population problems has centered on what could be the optimum size and its impact on economic growth and development (see, for example, Caldwell, 1990; National Research Council, 1993; Onokerhoraye, 1995; Bongaarts, 1996; Bloom and Williamson, 1998; United Nations, 1999; FAO 2000, UNDP, 2001 and Onwuka, 2003). This economics originated from the question posed by Malthus (1803) as to whether food production could keep pace with the demand of a growing population and his answer that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the resources on earth to provide the needed subsistence for mankind. The debate triggered by the Malthusian hypothesis points to a lack of universal applicability of his paradigm because in industrial countries, technological advances have spurred increases in agricultural production, which ensures food security for the citizens. For those countries, his predictions are somewhat negated, whereas a large number of developing countries remain trapped under conditions capable of validating them (Olofin, 1996; Smil, 2000). The efforts of governments in the developing countries to feed their peoples and also provide quality social services for them are being frustrated by rapid population growth. This growth is attributable, on the one hand, to improvement in human survival associated with the application of modern medical science to health matters, better sanitation and immunization of children, which have caused the death rate to decrease (Ashford, 2001; United Nations, 2001a). On the other hand, the traditional beliefs about the value of children, particularly sons, as an asset to be relied upon by their parents in agricultural production and to support them during old age have combined with the practice of polygamy, the fear of child mortality and low levels of female education to encourage high fertility. Moreover, the continuity of the patrilineal decent group and the influence of religions, which teach that children are gifts from God sharply limits the prospects for lowering the birth rate (for details, see Lee and Miller, 1990; Renne, 1995; Ainsworth et al., 1996 and National Population Commission, 2003). Consequently, the world population has been increasing and the last two decades have been demographically unprecedented as it rose from 4.8 billion people in 1985 to 6.4 billion in 2004. Much of this increase occurred in the developing nations as their populations grew from 3.7 billion to 5.1 billion as against that of developed nations which grew from 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion over the same period (United Nations, 2001b; Population Reference Bureau, 2004). When it is noted that the high fertility countries are mainly resource constrained with low levels of social and economic development, it becomes obvious why they have accepted responsibility to control the growth of their populations through endorsement of family planning programmes mapped out at various international conferences organized by the United Nations (United Nations, 1998). Nigeria is a high fertility country and there is evidence that its large population inhibits government’s efforts in meeting the basic needs of the people. With a population that already exceeds 130 million people and growing at roughly 3 per cent annually, (United Nations, 2004), a considerable proportion of the country’s resources is, doubtless, consumed instead of being accumulated as capital for development purposes. To that extent, the rate of development lags behind that of population growth, which triggers stagnation in social service delivery. This necessarily impedes whatever progress being achieved in the fight against poverty. Our objective in this paper is to ascertain the validity of the assumed inverse association between population growth and economic development in Nigeria. Using regression techniques, we test this association for the period 1980-2003 and use the results to assess the impact of demographic change on government’s social obligation to the people. The 23 years are chosen because they cover the oil boom, the economic crisis as well as the structural adjustment and post structural adjustment periods. In line with this setting, the contents of the paper are adumbrated as follows. Section I provides background information on demographic trends. Section II investigates the implications of population growth for development in Nigeria. In section III, we present the models including results of the regression analysis on the relationship between population growth and economic development in Nigeria while section IV summarizes the findings and offers conclusions. The Dynamics of Population Growth in Nigeria and its Implications for the Country’s Development A large body of demographic literature documents the incidence of population growth in Nigeria (see, for example, Olusanya and Pursell, 1981; Farooq, 1985; Feyisetan and Ainsworth, 1996; Anyinwe and Okojie, 1998; National Population Commission, 2002 and Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2004a). Ordinarily, this growth in population would not be a cause for concern since in certain circumstances, a large population could be to the advantage of a country in terms of the sheer size of its domestic market, better division of labour, increased productivity through improvement in the ratio of labour force to population as well as enhancement of its political and military power. A large population also diversifies the demand for products and services and promotes the tendency to increasing returns to scale, thereby raising economic development (Yesufu, 2000). Additionally, advances in the arts, sciences and technology are the purview of highly talented individuals and invariably the larger the population, the more likely would be the number of such individuals in the society (Jakande, 1988; Mauldin and Sinding, 1993 and Idele, 1997). Admittedly, population growth puts severe pressures on existing resources, but as Simon (1996) observes, such growth ushers in needed adjustments that neutralize the effects of depleting resources through the search for substitutes by stimulating technological change. Put differently, the ultimate resource is people who exert their dexterity to manage the challenges of development. When viewed from that perspective, population growth is not necessarily a problem but an opportunity in disguise. Be that as it may, Nigeria’s large population has development implications.To begin with, it does not augur well for planning purposes. Plans only succeed when the implementation is pursued with reliable data. But in the Nigerian experience, the unreliability of demographic data makes plan implementation a futile exercise in the country. (African Development Bank, 2001). Studies described elsewhere (World Bank, 1994; United Nations, 1998; Adonri, 2003) also detail other negative consequences associated with demographic change in Nigeria such as health complications arising from pregnancies that occur too early or too frequently during the reproductive life cycle. Population and health are thus closely related when considering high-risk pregnancies. By preventing such pregnancies, a significant impact can be made in enhancing the quality of life of the mother and child and by extension that of the entire population. Rapid population growth in Nigeria is equally associated with unemployment with figures ranging from 17 per cent per annum for the entire population to 60 per cent for the youths because job opportunities are fewer than the number seeking for them, and stagnating economic performance because a larger proportion of available resources is consumed instead of invested to generate growth (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2004b). In addition, it poses continuous pressure on resources, particularly on agricultural land. For instance, due to high density of people in the Eastern states as much as 53 per cent of the farming population cultivate less than 0.4 hectares in a given year and in the more congested areas of these states most farmers cultivate only 0.2 hectares per year. The result is fragmentation of farmlands and their subdivision into smaller plots to accommodate the growing farming populace. With time, the small plots would become untenable for even subsistence farming, forcing those concerned to move into marginal soils, where greater degradation takes place with attendant reduction in agricultural output (Akinbode, 2002; Madu, 2005). The application of modern farming techniques and fertilizers could assuage this problem, but unfortunately as a capital deficient country, the traditional methods of farming dominate agricultural practice in Nigeria. Inevitably, therefore, population pressure on a fixed factor like land would usher in diminishing returns (Iniodu, 1998). This is one of the explanations to decreasing peasant income and accompanying widespread poverty among the rural dwellers, the incessant food shortages and insufficient calorie intake among the Nigerian people. The changes in the structure of Nigeria’s population continue to shift in favor of the young age group 0-14. This age group accounted for 43 per cent of the population during the 1963 census, but the figure increased to 45 per cent of the population during the 1991 census as Table 1 demonstrates.
Posted on: Tue, 11 Nov 2014 20:23:29 +0000
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