Its not entirely right to say that the crisis in Ukraine was produced by two sets of blunders..... The European Union’s vacillations and — most significantly, of course — Russia’s aggression. Viktor Yanukovich and his cronies shared much of the blame. It was his jailing of the opposition leader Yulia Tymoschenko and his incompetence to balance Russian and European interests, that got his country into this crisis. Stephen Kotkin cant say the E.U. was bluffing and has no appetite for additional eastern expansion. They were going towards Ukraine because they felt they had something to do. EU affirmed Ukraines European choice. The debate about Ukraines orientation was decided domestically in 2004, and confirmed in the election of 2007. President Yushchenko had talked in terms of 2020 being a target date if the necessary reforms were implemented. With an assoication agreement with the EU Ukraine would go through the same procedure like Poland and the Baltic states went through, before finally becoming members. Then came Yanukovich in 2010, who had spoiled the plan. He and his ccorrupt cronies would have much to lose, if the association agreement was signed. Rules and laws would have to be followed, to make businesses more transparent. He came under intense pressure from Russia not to sign the historic EU deal. Russia wanted Ukraine to join its own customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus, which it sees as a prototype rival to the European Union. Yet there had been criticism that European diplomacy in the run-up to the Vilnius summit last November had turned Ukraine into a zero-sum game - a choice between the EU and Russia - with little middle ground. This had put huge strain on pro-EU Ukrainians, who knew if Yanukovich stood by his decision to delay the chance of signing up to closer relations with the EU, it could be several years before they would get another opportunity. Yanukovichs ouster offered Putin a happenchance to revive nationalism. By re-incorporating Crimea into the Russian Federation, he would restore the old glory of Soviet Russia.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 12:38:23 +0000
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