It’s amusing reading all the stuff from unionists today about who won last night’s debate on STV. Supporters of the union have been focussing, in particular, on Alex Salmond’s apparent lack of a ‘Plan B’ on currency. I couldn’t care less if we have pounds, dollars, euros or groats as long as we have a currency that works for us. Most of us buy goods from across the world and pay in our currency. Those from whom we purchase goods get paid in their local currency. It works. Large businesses are already trading in multiple currencies without difficulty. And there is no doubt, despite what Alistair Darling says, that the pound is ours to use, if we want to. It is used by the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Gibraltar and the Falkland Islands, all of which govern themselves. Anyone who has read the report of the Fiscal Commission, including Alistair Darling, knows full well there is a Plan B on currency. And a Plan C, D and E. Rather than being seen as a weakness or a seeming inability to answer the question, it is correct for the First Minister to promote the plan that is best for Scotland - and incidentally the rUK - of a formal currency union. The next best plan for Scotland, according to Annex 1 of the Fiscal Commission report, seems to be to use the pound without a currency union. This wouldn’t be as beneficial to Scotland in its early days of independence but it would be even less beneficial to rUK and that is why I believe there will be a currency union. What supporters of the union won’t tell you is that, without a currency union, it is very likely that sterling would devalue. This would have a very serious effect on the rUK’s ability to meet its debts and public expenditure. Take oil, gas and whisky revenues out of the rUK’s balance of payments - which would happen in the absence of a currency union - and Westminster would have serious problems. That really is the nub of the matter and why George Osborne and Ed Balls have been playing what they see as their trump card of scaring people in Scotland into believing they can no longer use the pound and there will be no currency union. Don’t be taken in by this. Once we vote for independence and get round the negotiating table, a chancellor looking after the interests of the rUK would have to agree terms for a currency union with Scotland, or face pretty dire consequences for the economy over which s/he has a duty of care. We have Plan B, C, D or E to fall back on. What would a rUK chancellor have? I know certain people will dismiss my views and would prefer, instead, to listen to some economic expert or other. There are experts promoting many points of view, wedded to one side of the debate or the other. I am not an expert. I am not a member of a political party and do not have to follow any party line. I have simply done what most Scots are doing in this debate. I have done the research and found out for myself, from the mass of information that exists, how the UK operates. And I don’t like much of what I have found. That is why my resolve this morning is as great as it ever was, greater even, to vote YES so that my children can have a better future in a fairer country governed by people who care about Scotland. On that score, there was no contest in last night’s debate. Do I trust the First Minister and his resolve to do the best for Scotland and its people? Or do I trust a former Labour chancellor - the man who was at the wheel when the banks crashed, and worse - who talks down the ability of Scots to look after themselves and keeps telling us that we have the best of both worlds in this most unequal of unions? And who did win, really? Amongst undecided voters the First Minister was seen as winning the debate by 55% to 45% and it is undecided voters that those of us who want independence need to persuade. Very few, at this stage, entrenched no voters will change their minds, so this is exactly the kind of result that is encouraging to those of us promoting a YES vote. That along with a 4% increase in the YES vote according to the Ipsos MORI poll before the debate and a 2% shift to YES during the debate, according to the ICM snap poll. Onwards and upwards. I’m up for the challenge of the next 6 weeks.
Posted on: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 10:09:55 +0000
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